National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
United States Department of Commerce


FY 2023

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Cai, W., F. Jia, S. Li, A. Purich, G. Wang, L. Wu, B. Gan, A. Santoso, T. Geng, B. Ng, Y. Yang, D. Ferreira, G.A. Meehl, and M.J. McPhaden

Nature Clim. Change, 13, 235–239, doi: 10.1038/s41558-023-01610-x, View open access article online at Nature (external link) (2023)

Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

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