FY 1980

NMC model performance in the northeast Pacific

Overland, J.E.

NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS WR-151, 19 pp (1980)

Central pressure and position errors of low centers for 36-hr sea-level pressure forecasts were compared between the LFM-II and 6LPE models for December 1977 and the LFM-II and 7LPE models for 19 January through 28 February 1978. Nine storms provided 41 cases in December and 20 storms provided 66 cases in January through February. During December the LFM-II was superior to the 6LPE in locating rapidly moving storms. The position errors for the LFM-II in December were on the order of 250 km. During February both the LFM-II and the 7LPE had median position errors on the order of 450 km; also, both had a high percentage (25%) of observed-but-not-forecast low centers. The larger errors in February were related to resolution of initial cyclogenesis.