National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
United States Department of Commerce


FY 2015

A Tsunami Forecast Model for Midway Atoll

Gica, E.

NOAA OAR Special Report, PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 7, 132 pp, doi: 10.7289/V5RJ4GCP (2015)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has developed a tsunami forecast model for Midway Atoll as part of an effort to provide tsunami forecasts for U.S. coastal communities. Development, validation, and stability testing of the tsunami forecast model has been conducted to ensure that it is stable and robust. The Midway Atoll tsunami forecast model employs the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) numerical code and has been validated with historical and synthetically generated tsunami events. A total of 16 historical events and 42 synthetic (Mw 9.4, 7.5, and 6.2) events from different source regions were used for validation and stability testing. Results show good agreement between observed and modeled data. The Midway Atoll forecast model has been developed to simulate 4 hours of tsunami wave characteristics in approximately 16.4 minutes of CPU time.

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