National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
United States Department of Commerce


FY 2007

NOAA tsunami forecasting system: Using numerical modeling tools to assist in tsunami warning guidance

Venturato, A.J., D.W. Denbo, K.T. McHugh, J.R. Osborne, P. Sorvik, and C. Moore

In 23rd Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology, 87th AMS Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX, 14–18 January 2007, Paper 3A.8 (2007)

The NOAA National Center for Tsunami Research is collaborating with National Weather Service Tsunami Warning Centers and academia to develop a tsunami forecasting system that assimilates real-time event data with numerical models to provide estimates of tsunami amplitudes and arrival times for potential at-risk communities. We present a demonstration of the first software version that is being tested at each warning center for future operational use. This version estimates tsunami propagation, coastal amplitudes and arrival times within the Pacific Basin based on preliminary seismic data. Tools are provided in a user-friendly interface for further analysis. Future software versions will perform real-time data assimilation of deep-ocean tsunami detectors, calculate tsunami inundation at selected at-risk communities, and provide forecasts of later tsunami waves that can threaten rescue and recovery operations.

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