What research needs and priorities are important to Arctic
development?
Keynote address at the Joint
EU – Russia
- Canada – US
Workshop
on Collaborative Technological
Research for Arctic
Development
Brussels, October 25-27, 2001
Walter B. Parker
Commissioner
U.S. Arctic Research Commission
3724 Campbell Airstrip Road
Anchorage, Alaska 99504
E-mail wbparker@gci.net
By the mid point of the Century, the United States could put a B29 over the North Pole every day for weather reconnaissance and Russia was placing icestations on the Arctic Ocean that would have fleets of aircraft and helicopters serving them. Soon after came the satellite age and remote sensing opened up a means of constants surveillance for many disciplines. Thus, three generations of Arctic researchers were created whose time in the Arctic was minimal but whose knowledge was greater than had been dreamed of when a scientists field of endeavor was limited to what he could cover by sailing ship, kayak or dog team during expeditions that required several years instead of a summer.
Arctic research in the 21st Century must examine its immediate past and ensure that quick looks at large areas are backed up by ground truthing on a regular basis. Obviously, the easiest way to achieve this is to incorporate the inhabitants of the Arctic as full members of the scientific and research community. Steps are underway in all Arctic nations to do this and it is imperative that this movement towards incorporation of Arctic residents in the great global research programs be accelerated.
Arctic research in the 21st Century should focus, at a minimum, on the following four major areas:
- Research to meet the needs of global models dealing with climate change and changes in the oceans.
- Research to measure changes in Arctic ecosystems and their flora and fauna.
- Research to meet the needs of Arctic inhabitants, primarily those indigenous people living in small northern communities.
- Research to meet the needs of resource development in the Arctic.
Research to meet the needs of global models
The global
models on climate change will require a steady flow
of data from the Arctic. Northern regions, if
we are to answer the questions raised thus far on the
long term effects of carbon dioxide emissions
on global warming, the role of the Arctic Ocean as
a generator
of major changes in the oceans worldwide, and the other
controversies generated
by a world population that has quadrupled in the past
century; it will require programs that are designed
to continue through most of
the next 100years.
These needs have been recognized by a major effort launched by the United States titled Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH), which is already generating a strong response throughout the circumpolar world as well as nations not a part of the Arctic that have strong Arctic interests. SEARCH has been conceived as a broad interdisciplinary, multi-scale program to understand the recent and ongoing changes that have resulted in dramatic decreases in sea ice in the Arctic, dramatic changes in permafrost, radiation effects including the ultra violet holes at both ends of the planet, and concurrent changes in animal and plant populations. It includes a long term program to track environmental changes, a modeling program to test ideas about the coupling between different components, and to attempt to predict the future course of change in the Arctic and its effect upon other systems linked to the Arctic. It will institute process studies to test hypotheses about feedback processes; and an assessment component to explain, to the best of our abilities, the ultimate impact of global change on the Arctic and the global ecosystem and the societies that live within and depend upon those ecosystems.
The transboundary movement of contaminants, both across
ecosystem boundaries
and political boundaries, that was defined in the Arctic
Council Working Group Arctic Monitoring and Assessment
Program's epic reports, has
generated
strong international movements towards better source control
and
regulation
of oil and other hazardous material transports that must
be continued
for
the foreseeable future.
Research to measure changes in Arctic ecosystems and their
flora and fauna
If the indigenous peoples of the Arctic
are to maintain any semblance of their traditional
cultures until the end of the 21st Century it is
imperative that maintenance of healthy animal and plant
populations
be a high priority. In a period when
both taiga and tundra may be subject to
major changes in the components of its plant populations,
it
should be expected that ungulate populations
of moose, caribou, reindeer and smaller
mammals would change and that the carnivorous species
that prey
upon them will
change also. In some cases these changes may have dramatic
effect upon the
local populations that depend upon them and upon the guiding
and other tourism
ventures that also depend upon highly visible animal
populations. The same problem exists with fish and sea mammal populations
and this
problem will require much greater efforts than the terrestrial
problems.
Disputes, often rancorous, exist already throughout the circumpolar north on the above issues. Solving them will require two major changes in the traditional manner in which fisheries and game biologists and regulators have approached the problem. First, it will require an examination of the present scientific methods in use, especially those methods used in measuring populations. Second, it will require a much closer incorporation of local northern populations in both the science and the regulation of animal populations and the ecosystems that support them.
The use of protected areas in maintaining healthy ecosystems
and animal populations has received
strong impetus in recent years; and in many parts of
the Arctic a high degree of acceptance by local residents,
both indigenous and non-indigenous.
Monitoring programs must be maintained at
a level that will enable local needs to be treated equally
with major
developments sponsored by forces from outside the affected
area. The present program under the
Arctic Council Working Group on Conservation of Arctic
Flora and Fauna (CAFF) is moving forward strongly on protected areas and will hopefully continue well into the future.
Research to meet the needs of Arctic inhabitants,
primarily those indigenous people in small communities
There are more
than 1500 small communities in the Arctic that are not
connected to their national
road or rail networks. These will continue
for a long time to be dependent upon air, annual marine
or riverine transportation
and telecommunications for interaction with the rest of
the world. During the 20th Century enormous investments
were made
in the military and resource development
sectors in the Arctic. The benefit of
these investments was mixed, at best, for the local inhabitants.
Many airports were located in northern
communities but the vast majority did
not have adequate airports until late in the century and
many
still have
inadequate air service. Telephone service was lacking in
most places until relatively
late in the century and, here again, many communities still do not have basic telephone service.
Regional air service in most Arctic countries still requires
long flights south
to connect to another flight north to make connections
between communities only a few hundred
kilometers apart. A trip of 250 kilometers can
become one of 5,000 is some cases. There have been recent
advances by air carriers operated by indigenous people organizations
to provide east
west routing where none existed before in North America
but this is till an area
requiring attention. Probably the greatest advance since
World War II in
providing greater safety and reliability to air service
to small communities in the Arctic
is the FAA's CAPSTONE system now being tested in Alaska. CAPSTONE relies upon the Global Positioning Satellite
System
(GPS) for guidance. No ground installations
are necessary and all equipment to access
the system is within the aircraft. Most northern communities
are
not blessed with excellent year round
weather insofar as ceiling and visibility are
concerned, especially those along the Arctic Coast. In
addition to making approaches possible
in weather conditions that are not safely possible
now, the system will provide traffic information on all
other aircraft participating in the system.
Continued advances in aircraft designed for Arctic conditions
will hopefully be a priority,
Power cells to serve the needs of remote runways, advances
in runway lighting and a concentration
on training, especially utilizing simulators, should
bring about an advance throughout the coming decades in
aviation safety and reliability for the small communities.
The United States adopted telehealth as one of its major
priorities during the
period (1998-2000) that it chaired the Arctic Council.
In addition to advances
in the health delivery system, we hoped to bring a focus
on the problem of bandwidth adequate
to serve small communities in the Information Age.
In Alaska, there is a large group working on distant education under
the leadership of the President of the University of Alaska
and another large group working on
telehealth under the joint leadership of the Alaska State
Commissioner of Health and Social Services and the Alaska
Native Health Service. Both put out
reports in the spring of 2001 identifying bandwidth as the major problem to overcome in the immediate
future if
the full range of available technology
is to be utilized in program development. The
University of the Arctic in Rovaniemi, Finland, will be
grappling with this
problem in order to meet the needs of is circumpolar participants and the
international telehealth community continues its efforts. Hopefully, this will continue to be a strong priority of the eight
nations and six
permanent participants making up the Arctic Council at
present.
The telecommunications industry is largely deregulated in many parts of the Arctic and it makes it difficult to plan regional systems without strong public planning efforts to identify needs. With adequate bandwidth, the science community can involve local inhabitants in research to a degree never possible before. This has already begun in Alaska and other parts of the Arctic. Being able to input local observations on a continuing basis into regional and global models should make possible a degree of predictive capacity far beyond our present efforts.
Research to meet the needs of resource development in
the Arctic
At the beginning of the last century rail development
was at its all time peak
in many parts of the Arctic. Spurred by mining development
and the need for inter-regional communication,
rails were being extended in Alaska,
Canada, Europe and Siberia. This largely came to a halt
by the
1920s with the
exception of the Baikal-Amur Mainline in Siberia and a
few lines built
to serve mining developments in Russia and in Canada. Now,
rails are receiving attention again with planning underway
to connect Alaska
to the contiguous United States through Canada being actively pursued.
Other major projects are being discussed but are still
somewhat nebulous.
Similar to the 1970s there is again a high interest in
pipelines, oil tankers, liquefied
natural gas systems and gas to liquid plants. With the large
number of projects being discussed there is little doubt
that some, if not
many, will come to pass. A great deal was learned about
how to mitigate the effects of resource development on ecosystems and there
is still a
good deal to be learned. This is an
area where research money, both public and private,
will be available and where a high degree of coordination
will be necessary between these efforts.
Continued research in oil spill response, especially in
areas impacted by ice,
should remain a high priority. We have gone about as far
as we can with mechanical recovery
through use of skimmers and with in-situ burning techniques.
A serious effort needs to be undertaken again on chemical responses for those spills where weather and or ice makes
the present
systems unusable. In some areas where oil development is
contemplated this may be 50% of the time.
In the present situation where changes in permafrost temperatures
are being noted
at a rate never observed before. Those methods used to
protect permafrost from degradation
will require even more stringent application and monitoring.
Design standards must be prepared to deal with a greater range of possibilities in soil stability. Communities will not
have the
resources to deal with permafrost
changes to the same degree that major developments
will, and systems must be in place to transfer technological
advances rapidly where appropriate.
Airstrips and local road systems will need attention as much as major highways and railroads.
Fisheries are still the major economic mainstay of many
Arctic communities, especially
those relying upon a subsistence economy and life style.
It is already
apparent that sea mammals are under some stress in their
present habitats. Cod and other temperature
sensitive species will respond as they have
in the past to changes. There have been substantial advances
in the use of acoustics and other technologies in measuring animal
populations
in the oceans and rivers. A concentration
of research in this area may make
it possible to establish a common
ground between local users and those fleets from
other areas on exactly how much stock is available and
to establish more reliable predictive models for fisheries.
There is a great deal of research underway already in
measuring the basic productivity
of the oceans but this area will continue to require a
high priority until we figure out
whether declines of high tropic level species are
due to mistakes in regulation, due to lack of basic energy
sources or just certain species doing what they want to do. The same
applies to
terrestrial species but on a much more limited scale.
Conclusions
The most rapid advances in developing better scientific
and technological
answers to the problems that global change and increasing populations
will generate
for the Arctic in the next century can be obtained by
continuing the declassification of the information collected since
World
War II, especially ocean temperature
and current information. Combined with a
continued presence of icebreaker and submarine cruises, we may
find
the necessary information in the Arctic
Basin to gives us better predictive
capabilities. Those involved in SEARCH will be promoting better
underwater research vehicles also.
It will be critical to bring together on a continuing basis those studying physical systems with those working on biological systems in each region. It would be a mistake to assume that this is happening as a regular part of our way of doing science.
We have come a long way in the past decade on incorporating traditional history and knowledge on local indigenous peoples in our findings. Joint efforts sponsored by Working Groups of the Arctic Council with U.N. agencies are breaking new ground. Permanent participants are being sponsored by their national funding sources. There is still a great deal of information to gain by continuing and enhancing these efforts.
It is not probable that there will be large increases
in Arctic populations due
to immigration as occurred in the last century, but even
small increases can
have a major effect. The greatest danger will come from
the continued global
population increase and the stresses created for all of
the planet, including the Arctic.