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FY 2010

A Tsunami Forecast Model for Kodiak, Alaska

Wei, Y., and D. Arcas

NOAA OAR Special Report, PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 4, 96 pp (2010)

As part of NOAA’s tsunami forecast system, this work addresses the development, validation, and stability testing of the tsunami forecast model for Kodiak, one of the largest fishing ports in Alaska and home of nearly 14,000 residents and a Coast Guard base. The Kodiak tsunami forecast model employs the optimized version of the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) that is constructed at a spatial resolution of 60 m in the finest grid to accomplish a 4-hr simulation of wave inundation within 7 min of CPU time. A reference inundation model is developed in parallel with the optimized model using highresolution grids up to 6mto provide modeling reference. The model validation using historical tsunamis shows good agreement between the observed and modeled data, and provides quantitative estimation of the tsunami time series, inundation, and runup at Kodiak during these events. The forecast model stability is evaluated based on 43 simulated scenarios from all subduction zones of the Pacific Basin at the magnitude level of Mw 9.3. Model computation shows that such an event may generate a maximum tsunami wave amplitude up to 16 m at the coastlines of Kodiak.

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