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FY 2001

Project SIFT (Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis)

Titov, V.V., F.I. González, H.O. Mofjeld, and J.C. Newman

In Proceedings of the International Tsunami Symposium 2001 (ITS 2001), Session 7-2, Seattle, WA, 7–10 August 2001, (on CD-ROM), 715–721 (2001)

PMEL's Project SIFT conducts research and development to provide the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) and NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers with forecast guidance tools during an actual tsumami event. The Method Of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model is being used to create a forecast database of pre-computed generation/propagation and inundation scenarios, which will be combined with real-time data to optimize the final, site-specific forecast. The current effort concentrates on forecasting the inundation of Hilo and Kahului, Hawaii by tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Alaska Aleutian Seismic Zone. The initial real-time data stream to be assimilated consists of seismic information and tsunami measurements acquired by Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) systems. First, offshore wave parameters will be estimated by exploiting the linearity of tsunami generation/propagation scenarios to construct a composite solution that best matches the available seismic and DART data (Titov and Gonzalez, 1999). These offshore estimates are then combined with the site-specific inundation scenarios to construct an inundation forecast for that particular location. An overview of the implementation and testing of this methodology for the Hawaii sites will be presented. Future plans include the assimilation of coastal tide gage data and an extension of coverage to West Coast, Alaska, Hawaii, and other Pacific island communities at risk.

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