FY 1999

Offshore forecasting of Hawaiian tsunamis generated in Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone

Titov, V.V., H.O. Mofjeld, F.I. González, and J.C. Newman

NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL PMEL-114, NTIS: PB2002-101567, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 22 pp (1999)

This report describes an R&D activity conducted during FY 1998 to develop tsunami forecasting tools for the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). The activity included analytical and numerical sensitivity studies of tsunami wave characteristics offshore of Hawaii, for ranges of earthquake source parameters in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone (AASZ); this region is a major source of destructive tsunamis that strike Hawaii. A set of tsunami numerical simulation scenarios was designed to be the basis for the sensitivity analysis, using the 1996 Andreanov Island earthquake/tsunami as a reference. The analysis shows that the first waves are relatively insensitive to the details of the earthquake fault plane parameters. Simulation results for unit sources have been stored as an online database with a WWW interface. A database user can quickly obtain a model prediction of the offshore tsunami wave heights at selected locations for a wide variety of AASZ earthquake scenarios. This database provides a useful offshore tsunami forecasting tool for hazard mitigation managers.