Overview of Recent Work
Here's a link to my current CV.
Here are some web pages and documents which summarize past work:
A 4D representation of some of our indiviual-based fish (pollock) model results for various years. The model is centered near Kodiak Island, AK. In the above frame Kodiak Island is on the right and Alaska is to the left; we are looking northeast into Shelikof Strait. These are animated VRML worlds which *should* run on most PC and Mac web browsers (if not try installing the Cortona Viewer). Fish are represented as spheres which move through time, with modeled seafloor bathymetry rendered as a 3D surface. Click on the above frame to open this world. Here also are some representative fish worlds (in black and white) for 1978 1987 1988 1991 1994
Also check out our animations
of salinity fields for these years, which highlight eddies in this
These are short animated
gifs. We have experimented with other formats but these are *guaranteed*
to run on any web browser
Siedlecki, S.A., D.J. Pilcher, A. Hermann, K. Coyle, and J.T. Mathis, The importance of freshwater to spatial variability of aragonite saturation state in the Gulf of Alaska J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, in review.
Hodgson, E.E., Kaplan, I.C., Marshall, K.N., Leonard, J., Essington, T.E., Busch, D. S., Fulton, E.A., Harvey, C.J., Hermann, A., and McElhany, P. Spatially variable ocean acidification and its consequences in the California Current: interactions between oceanography, food webs, and fishing communities. Submitted to Fish and Fisheries.
Gibson, G.A, W. Stockhausen, K.O. Coyle, S. Hinckley, C. Parada, A. Hermann, M. Doyle, and C. Ladd. An individual-based model for Sablefish: Exploring the connectivity between potential spawning and nursery grounds in the Gulf of Alaska. Deep-Sea Research II, in review.
Hinckley, S., W. Stockhausen, K.O. Coyle , B. Laurel, G. A. Gibson, C. Parada, A. Hermann, M. Doyle, T. Hurst , A. E. Punt, and C. Ladd. Connectivity between spawning and nursery areas for Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the Gulf of Alaska. Deep-Sea Research II, in review.
Stockhausen, William T., Kenneth O. Coyle, Albert J. Hermann, Deborah Blood, Miriam Doyle, Georgina Gibson, Sarah Hinckle, Carol Ladd, and Carolina Parada. Running the Gauntlet: Connectivity between natal and nursery areas for arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) in the Gulf of Alaska, as inferred from a biophysical Individual-based Model. Deep-Sea Research II, in review.
Bednarsek, N., R.A. Feely, N. Tolimieri, A.J. Hermann, G.G. Waldbusser, S.A. Siedlecki, S.R. Alin, P. McElhany, J. Menkel, B. Moore-Maley, and G.T. Lebon. Loss of pteropod resilience under current OA conditions in the California Current Ecosystem. Nature Scientific Reports, in review.
Marshall, K.N., I.C. Kaplan, E.E. Hodgson, A.J. Hermann, S. Busch, P. McElhany, T.E. Essington, C.J. Harvey, and E.A. Fulton. 2017. Potential effects of ocean acidification on the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/gcb.13594.
Ortiz, I., K. Aydin, A. J. Hermann, G. Gibson, A. E. Punt, F. Wiese, L. B. Eisner, N. Ferm, T. W. Buckley, E. A. Moffitt, J. N. Ianelli, J. Murphy, M. Dalton, W. Cheng, M. Wang, K. Hedstrom, E. N. Curchitser, N. A. Bond and C. Boyd. 2016. Climate to fish: Synthesizing field work, data and models in a 39-year retrospective analysis of seasonal processes on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope. Deep-Sea Research II, doi: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.07.009.
Siedlecki, S.A., I.C. Kaplan, A.J. Hermann, T.T. Nguyen, N.A. Bond, J. Newton, G.D. Williams, W.T. Peterson, S. Alin and R.A. Feely. Experiments with seasonal forecasts of ocean conditions for the northern region of the California Current upwelling system. Nature Scientific Reports. doi:10.1038/srep27203.
Hermann, A. J., C. Ladd, W. Cheng, E. N. Curchitser and K. Hedstrom. A model-based examination of multivariate physical modes in the eastern and western Gulf of Alaska. Deep-Sea Research II, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.04.005i.
Wilderbuer, T. J., T. Duffy-Anderson, P.J. Stabeno and A.J. Hermann. Differential patterns of divergence in ocean drifters: Implications for larval flatfish advection and recruitment. Journal of Sea Research, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2016.03.003.
Kaplan, I.C., G.D. Williams, N.A. Bond, A.J. Hermann, S.A. Siedlecki. 2016. Cloudy with a chance of sardines: forecasting sardine distributions using regional climate models. Fisheries Oceanography, 25: 15.27. doi: 10.1111/fog.12131
Hermann, A. J., G. A. Gibson, N. A. Bond, E. N. Curchitser, K. Hedstrom, W. Cheng, M. Wang, E. D. Cokelet, P. J. Stabeno and K. Aydin. 2015. Projected future biophysical states of the Bering Sea. Deep-Sea Research II. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.11.001
Parada, C., S. Hinckley, J. Horne, M. Mazur, A. Hermann and E. Curchitser. 2015. Modeling connectivity of walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska: Are there any linkages to Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands? Deep-Sea Research Part II, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.12.010
Cheng, W., E. Curchitser, C. Stock, A. Hermann, E. Cokelet, C. Mordy, P. Stabeno, G. Hervieux, and F. Castruccio. 2015. What processes contribute to the spring and fall bloom co-variability on the Eastern Bering Sea shelf? Deep-Sea Research II. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.07.009
Richar, J. I., G. H. Kruse, E. Curchitser and A. J. Hermann. 2014. Patterns in connectivity and retention of simulated Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) larvae in the eastern Bering Sea. Prog. Oceanogr., doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2014.08.001.
Rooper, C. N., M. Zimmerman, M. M. Prescott and A. J. Hermann. 2014. Predictive models of coral and sponge distribution, abundance and diversity in bottom trawl surveys of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 503:157-176, doi: 10.3354/meps10710.
Hermann, A. J., G. A. Gibson, N. A. Bond, E. N. Curchitser, K. Hedstrom, W. Cheng, M. Wang, P. J. Stabeno, L. Eisner, K. D. Cieciel. 2013. A multivariate analysis of observed and modeled biophysical variability on the Bering Sea shelf: multidecadal hindcasts (1970-2009) and forecasts (2010-2040). Deep Sea Research II, in press, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.04.007.
Coyle, K. O., G.A. Gibson, K. Hedstrom, A.J. Hermann, and R.R. Hopcroft. 2013. Zooplankton biomass, advection and production on the northern Gulf of Alaska shelf from simulations and field observations. Journal of Marine Systems, in press, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.04.018.
Coyle, K., W. Cheng, S.L. Hinckley, E.J. Lessard, T. Whitledge, A.J. Hermann and K. Hedstrom. 2012. Model and field observations of effects of circulation on the timing and magnitude of nitrate utilization and production on the northern Gulf of Alaska shelf. Progress in Oceanography, 103:16-41, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.03.002.
Cheng, W., A. Hermann, K. Coyle, E. Dobbins, N. Kachel, and P. Stabeno. 2012. Macro- and micro-nutrient flux to a highly productive submarine bank in the Gulf of Alaska: a model-based analysis of daily and interannual variability. Progress in Oceanography, 101:63-77, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.01.001.
Williams, W., T. Weingartner, and A. Hermann. 2010. Idealized 2-dimensional modeling of a coastal buoyancy front under downwelling-favourable wind-forcing with application to the Alaska Coastal Current. Journal of Physical Oceanography 40(2): 279-294.
Brickman, D., B. Ådlandsvik, U. H. Thygesen, C. Parada, K. Rose, A. J. Hermann and K. Edwards. 2009. Particle Tracking. In: Manual of Recommended Practices for Modelling Physical – Biological Interactions during Fish Early Life, pp. 9 – 19. Ed. by E. W. North, A. Gallego, and P. Petitgas. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 295. 111 pp.
Di Lorenzo, E., J. Fiechter, N. Schneider, P. J. S. Franks, S. J. Bograd, A. M. Moore, A. C. Thomas, W. Crawford. A. Peña and A. J. Hermann. 2009. Nutrient and Salinity Low-Frequency Variations in the central and eastern North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters 36 (L14601), doi:10.1029/2009GL038261.
Hinckley, S., J.M. Napp, and A.J. Hermann. 2009. Simulation of physically-mediated variability in prey resources for a larval fish - a 3-dimensional NPZ model. Fisheries Oceanography, 18(4), 201–223.
Hermann, A. J., E. N. Curchitser, D. B. Haidvogel and E. L. Dobbins. 2009. A comparison of remote versus local influence of El Nino on the coastal circulation of the Northeast Pacific. Deep Sea Research II, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2009.02.005.
Hermann, A.J., S. Hinckley, E. L. Dobbins, D. B. Haidvogel, N. A. Bond, C. Mordy, N. Kachel and P. J. Stabeno. 2009. Quantifying cross-shelf and vertical nutrient flux in the Gulf of Alaska with a spatially nested, coupled biophysical model. Deep Sea Research II, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2009.02.008.
Dobbins, E. L., A. J. Hermann, P. J. Stabeno, N. A. Bond and R. C. Steed. 2009. Modeled transport of freshwater from a line-source in the coastal Gulf of Alaska. Deep Sea Research II, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2009.02.004
Hinckley, S., K. O. Coyle, G. Gibson, A. J. Hermann, and E. L. Dobbins. 2009. A biophysical NPZ model with iron for the Gulf of Alaska: Reproducing the differences between an oceanic HNLC ecosystem and a classical northern temperate shelf ecosystem. Deep Sea Research II, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2009.03.003
Hermann, A.J. and C. W. Moore. 2009 Visualization in fisheries oceanography: new approaches for the rapid exploration of coastal ecosystems. In: B.A. Megrey and E. Moksness (eds.), Computers in Fisheries Research, 2nd ed., DOI 10.1007/978-1-4020-8636-6_10, Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Haidvogel, D. B., H. Arango, W. P. Budgell, B. D. Cornuelle, E. Curchitser, E. Di Lorenzo, K. Fennel, W. R. Geyer, A. J. Hermann, L. Lanerolle, J. Levin, J. C. McWilliams, A. J. Miller, A. M. Moore,T. M. Powell, A. F. Shchepetkin, C. R. Sherwood, R. P. Signell, John C. Warner, J. Wilkin. 2008. Regional Ocean Forecasting in Terrain-following Coordinates: Model Formulation and Skill Assessment. J. Comput. Phys. 227: 3595-3624.
Williams, W., T. Weingartner, and A. Hermann. 2007. Idealized Modeling of Seasonal Variation in the Alaska Coastal Current, J. Geophys. Res. 112, C07001, doi:10.1029/2005JC003285.
Stockhausen, W.T., and A.J. Hermann. 2007. Modeling larval dispersion of rockfish: A tool for marine reserve design? In: J. Heifetz, J. DiCosimo, A.J. Gharrett, M.S. Love, T. O'Connell, and R. Stanley (eds.), Biology, assessment, and management of North Pacific rockfishes. Alaska Sea Grant College Program, University of Alaska Fairbanks. AK-SG-07-01.
Curchitser, E. N., D. B. Haidvogel, A. J. Hermann, E. L. Dobbins and T. M. Powell. 2005. Multi-scale modeling of the North Pacific Ocean I: Assessment and analysis of simulated basin-scale variability (1996-2003). J. Geophys. Res., 110, C11021, doi:101029/2005JC002902.
Powell, T. M., C.V. W. Lewis, E. Curchitser, D. Haidvogel, A. Hermann, and E. Dobbins. 2005. Results from a three-dimensional, nested biological-physical model of the California Current System: Comparisons with Statistics from Satellite Imagery. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C07018, doi:10.1029/2004JC002506.
Stabeno, P. J., N. A. Bond, A. J. Hermann, C. W. Mordy and J. E. Overland. 2004. Meteorology and Oceanography of the Northern Gulf of Alaska. Prog. Oceanog. 24: 859-897.
Hermann, A.J., D. B. Haidvogel, E. L. Dobbins, and P. J. Stabeno. 2002. Coupling Global and Regional Circulation Models in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska . Prog. Oceanog. 53: 335-367.
Hermann, A.J., P. J. Stabeno, D. B. Haidvogel, D. L. Musgrave. 2002. A regional tidal/subtidal circulation model of the southeastern Bering Sea: Development, sensitivity analyses and hindcasting. Deep-Sea Res. II (Topical Studies in Oceanography) 49: 5495-5967.
Hermann, A.J., S. Hinckley, B.A Megrey and J.M. Napp. 2001. Applied and theoretical considerations for constructing spatially explicit Individual-Based Models of marine fish early life history which include multiple trophic levels. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 58: 1030-1041.
Hinckley, S., Hermann, A. J., Meir, K. L. and B. A. Megrey. 2001. The importance of spawning location and timing to successful transport to nursery areas: a simulation modeling study of Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 58:1042-1052.
Hermann, A. J. and P. J. Stabeno. 1996. An eddy resolving model of circulation on the western Gulf of Alaska shelf. I. Model development and sensitivity analyses. J. Geophys. Res. 101: 1129-1149.
Stabeno. P. J. and A. J. Hermann. 1996. An eddy resolving model of circulation on the western Gulf of Alaska shelf. II. Comparison of results to oceanic observations. J. Geophys. Res. 101: 1151-1161.
Hermann, A. J., S. Hinckley, B. A. Megrey and P. J. Stabeno. 1996. Interannual variability of the early life history of walleye pollock near Shelikof Strait, as inferred from a spatially explicit, individual-based model.Fish. Oceanogr. 5 (Suppl. 1): 39-57.
Hinckley, S., A. J. Hermann and B. A. Megrey. 1996. Development of a spatially explicit, individual-based model of marine fish early life history. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 139: 47-68.
Stabeno, P. J., A. J. Hermann, N. A. Bond and S. J. Bograd. 1995. Modeling the possible impact of climate change on the survival of larval walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska. Can. Spec. Pub. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 121: 719-727.
Kemp, W. M., W. R. Boynton and A. J. Hermann. 1995. Simulation models of an estuarine macrophyte ecosystem. In: B. Patten and S. Jorgensen, eds., Complex Ecology: The Part-Whole Relation in Ecosystems, Prentice-Hall.
Kemp, W. M., W. R. Boynton and A. J. Hermann. 1995. Ecosystem modeling and energy analysis of submerged aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay. In: C. A. S. Hall, ed., Maximum Power: The Contribution of H. T. Odum to Ecology, Energy, and Engineering , University Press of Colorado.
Hermann, A. J. and W. B. Owens. 1993. Energetics of gravitational adjustment for mesoscale chimneys. Journal of Physical Oceanography 23: 346-371.
Hermann, A. J. and H. M. Hsu. 1993. A vertical coordinate mapping technique for semi-spectral primitive equation models of oceanic circulation. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 10: 381-396.
Hermann, A. J., P. B. Rhines and E. R. Johnson. 1989. Nonlinear Rossby adjustment in a channel: beyond Kelvin waves. J. Fluid Mech. 205:469 - 502.
Hermann, A. J., B. M. Hickey, M. L. Landry and D. F. Winter. 1989. Coastal Upwelling Dynamics. In: B. M. Hickey and M. R. Landry, eds., Coastal Oceanography of Washington and Oregon, Elsevier Publishers.
Bayley, S. E., J. Zoltek, Jr., A. J. Hermann, T. J. Dolan and L. Tortorra. 1985. Experimental manipulation of nutrients and water in a freshwater marsh: Effects on biomass, decomposition, and nutrient accumulation. Limnol. Oceanogr. 30: 500 512.
Dolan, T. J., A. J. Hermann, S. E. Bayley and J. Zoltek, Jr. 1984. Evapotranspiration of a Florida, U.S.A., freshwater wetland. J. Hydrol. 74: 355 371.
Kemp, W. M., W. R. Boynton and A. J. Hermann. 1983. A simulation modeling framework for ecological research in complex systems: the case of submerged vegetation in upper Chesapeake Bay. In: K. W. Turgeon, ed., Marine Ecosystem Modeling, U. S. Dept. of Commerce NOAA publication # S/T 83 38.
Dolan, T. J., S. E. Bayley, J. Zoltek, Jr. and A. J. Hermann. 1981. Phosphorous dynamics of a Florida freshwater marsh receiving treated wastewater. J. Appl. Ecol. 18: 205 219.
Boynton, W. R., W. M. Kemp, A. J. Hermann and others. 1981. An analysis of energetic and economic values associated with the decline of submerged macrophytic communities in Chesapeake Bay. In: W. J. Mitsch and R. W. Bosserman, eds., Energy and Ecological Modeling. Int. Soc. Ecol. Modl. Publ., Copenhagen.
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