Feature Publication Archive

Differences in the heat balance terms in the upper 700 m for the Southern Indian Ocean for two periods: P2 (1998–2015) minus P1 (1992–1998).
Red arrows: an increase in heat transport into the Southern Indian Ocean in P2 relative to P1; blue arrows: a decrease in heat transport into of the Southern Indian Ocean in P2 relative to P1. Units are 10-2 °C per year (approx. 0.02 petawatts of heat). Surface: heat exchanges across the air-sea interface; Bottom-700 m: heat exchanges across 700 m.
Zhang, Y., M. Feng, Y. Du, H.E. Philips, N.L. Bindoff, and M.J. McPhaden (2018): Strengthened Indonesian Throughflow drives decadal warming in the Southern Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45(12), 6167–6175, doi:10.1029/2018GL078265.
The first decade of the 21st century witnessed a slowdown in the rise of global surface atmospheric temperatures, referred to as the global warming hiatus. During this time, the tropical Pacific Ocean absorbed more heat from the atmosphere than in previous decades, associated with unusually strong trade winds and a cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, there is no evidence that the tropical Pacific heat content increased during this time. ... more »

The mechanism by which Indian Ocean SSTs affect the development of El Niño. Seasonal anomalies of SST (shaded, in °C) and surface wind at 1000 hPa (vector, in m/s) during 2014 based on the ensemble mean of the 18 coupled model runs with Indian Ocean SSTs prescribed as observed.
Lu Dong and Michael McPhaden published a paper in Scientific Reports on 2 February 2018 that describe how in 2014, warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean weakened westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific and helped to arrest the development of a widely anticipated major El Niño. They demonstrated the processes involved using an ensemble of coupled numerical experiments in which observed Indian Ocean SST anomalies in 2014–15 were prescribed but the Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system was free to evolve. Results confirmed that warm SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean created conditions that would have favored strengthening trade winds in the Pacific in 2014 such that only borderline El Niño conditions were evident by the end of the year.
Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014. Science Reports, 8, 2249, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-20294-4.
McPhaden, M.J. (2015): Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nature Clim. Change, 5, 791–795, doi:10.1038/nclimate2775.
The scientific community and the popular press were abuzz in early 2014 with the possibility that a “monster” El Niño was incubating in the tropical Pacific. ... more »