McPhaden, M.J., A. Timmermann, M.J. Widlansky, M.A. Balmaseda, and T.N. Stockdale (2015): The curious case of the El Niño that never happened: A perspective from 40 years of progress in climate research and forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1647–1665, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00089.1.
Forty years ago, an “El Niño Watch” expedition was launched to the eastern equatorial Pacific to document oceanographic changes that were expected to develop during the onset of an El Niño event in early 1975.
An initial warming was detected, but it quickly dissipated. Why did the initial warming fail to amplify into a full blown El Niño?
This paper provides a perspective from 40 yars of progress in climate research and forecasting.
With the benefit of hindsight, the authors provide a basin-scale context for what the expedition observed, elucidate the dynamical processes that gave rise to the abbreviated warming that was detected, and present retrospective forecasts of the event using modern coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical model prediction systems.
Reviewing this history highlights how early pioneers in El Niño research, despite the obstacles they faced, were able to make significant progress through bold initiatives that advanced the frontiers of our knowledge. It is also evident that, even though the scientific community today has a much deeper understanding of climate variability, more advanced observational capabilities, and sophisticated seasonal forecasting tools, skillful predictions of El Niño and its cold counterpart La Niña remain a major challenge.