Feature Publication Archive
McPhaden, M.J., A. Timmermann, M.J. Widlansky, M.A. Balmaseda, and T.N. Stockdale (2015): The curious case of the El Niño that never happened: A perspective from 40 years of progress in climate research and forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1647–1665, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00089.1.
Forty years ago, an “El Niño Watch” expedition was launched to the eastern equatorial Pacific to document oceanographic changes that were expected to develop during the onset of an El Niño event in early 1975.
An initial warming was detected, but it quickly dissipated. Why did the initial warming fail to amplify into a full blown El Niño?
This paper provides a perspective from 40 yars of progress in climate research and forecasting.
With the benefit of hindsight, the authors provide a basin-scale context for what the expedition observed, elucidate the dynamical... more »
McPhaden, M.J. (2015): Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nature Clim. Change, 5, 791–795, doi:10.1038/nclimate2775.
The scientific community and the popular press were abuzz in early 2014 with the possibility that a “monster” El Niño was incubating in the tropical Pacific. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions then suggested similarities with the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño, which is the strongest on record. Model forecasts from the early months of 2014 were also consistent in predicting development of El Niño conditions as the year progressed.
But then the big El Niño went bust, defying conventional wisdom and the computer model forecasts. Why this happened is a mystery that has left the experts... more »
Cai, W., A. Santoso, G. Wang, S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, K.M. Cobb, M. Collins, E. Guilyardi, F.-F. Jin, J.-S. Kug, M. Lengaigne, M.J. McPhaden, K. Takahashi, A. Timmermann, G. Vecchi, M. Watanabe, and L. Wu (2015): ENSO and greenhouse warming. Nature Clim. Change, 5, 849–859, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2743.
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate.
Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence... more »
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2015BAMSStateoftheClimate.1, Johnson, G.C., and A.R. Parsons (2015): Overview. In State of the Climate in 2014, Global Oceans. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96(7), S59.
Every year NOAA leads a team of international scientists in issuing a report on the state of the climate in the year just passed, published as a supplement to Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Ten Federal, JISAO, and JIMAR scientists resident at PMEL co-authored four of twelve sections and a sidebar in the Global Oceans chapter and a section in the Arctic chapter for the State of the Climate in 2014 report, published in July 2015. In addition, Dr. Gregory... more »
Mathis et al., 2015. Special Issue on Emerging Themes in Ocean Acidification Science. Oceanography, 28(2), 10–228.
In June 2015,Oceanography released a special issue on Emerging Themes in Ocean Acidification Science. The papers in this issue were written in conjunction with the 2013 Ocean Acidification Principle Investigator’s Meeting, organized by the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Project’s Ocean Acidification subcommittee and sponsored by NSF, NOAA, and NASA. This meeting brought together the US-funded OA research community to assess the state of the science... more »