Mioduszewski, J., S. Vavrus, and M. Wang (2018): Diminishing Arctic sea ice promotes stronger surface winds. J. Climate, 31(19), 8101–8119, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0109.1.
Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the 21st century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. In this study, the authors identified patterns of wind changes in four seasons across the Arctic and their likely causal mechanisms, particularly those associated with sea ice loss.
The authors compared the outputs from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project for two time periods: 1971-2000 and 2071-2100. The CESM Large Ensemble Project is a publicly available set of climate model simulations intended for advancing understanding of internal climate variability and climate change.
Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing surface roughness and stability of the lower troposphere (the lowest region of the atmosphere extending from the Earth's surface) resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming, as well as local changes in the storm track. The greatest increases in surface wind speed occur in the same areas where the strongest warming and the most complete loss of sea ice are found.