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Discussion
and recommendations
JMA Involvement
in TAO
The TAO Panel was briefed on JMA's observational, analysis, and prediction
activities at TIP-5. JMA is a user of TAO data, both from the GTS and
directly from NOAA/PMEL via Internet anonymous ftp data transfers. JMA
also runs quarterly cruises along 137°E and yearly cruises along
165°E, meridians presently instrumented with TAO moorings. The 165°E
line is particularly difficult to service regularly with dedicated mooring
cruises, so that damaged or otherwise inoperable buoys may go unattended
for unnecessarily long periods of time. The JMA ship Ryofu Maru #3
could assist in the repair of buoys along 165°E and 137°E, thereby
improving the quantity and quality of data available for operational weather
and climate analysis and prediction products. It is therefore recommended
that JMA consider an active participation in moored buoy maintenance along
137°E and 165°E in cooperation with the TAO Implementation Panel.
Fishing Vandalism
Damage and loss of mooring equipment associated with fishing activity continues
to be a problem affecting performance of the array. At three especially
hard hit sites in the western Pacific (0°,147°E; 2°N,147°E;
5°N,137°E), data return has been limited in 1993 - 1995 to 35
- 50%, and 9 out of 16 most recently deployed moorings have been lost. It
is not clear why these three sites in particular should be so severely affected.
However, given the present level of resources available to maintain the
array, the panel recognizes that a moratorium on measurements at one or
more of these sites may be necessary until progress can be made on reducing
fishing related losses of data and equipment. Progress will be measured
by tracking data and equipment return of neighboring western Pacific sites
where losses, though not as severe, are still evident. Data return approaching
that of the central Pacific (75 - 90%), and a downward trend in mooring
losses, will be criteria used to evaluate progress.
The panel also established
a team of two individuals, one from PMEL (T. Wright) and one from JAMSTEC
(Y. Kuroda) to formulate and implement a coordinated strategy to mitigate
against the adverse impacts of fishing related mooring damage and losses.
The team will report yearly to the TAO Panel on its efforts.
TAO Terms of Reference
The question was raised about whether the Panel might need to modify its
terms of reference in view of new mooring programs being planned in all
three tropical oceans and in the extratropical North Pacific, such as
PIRATA, TRITON, and work in the South China Sea (SCSMEX). The Panel agreed
that there was merit to considering this issue further, since these new
programs address the objectives of TIP sponsors (CLIVAR, GCOS, and GOOS).
However, the Panel recommended that discussion of this topic be deferred
until such time as some or all of these programs have progressed further
in their implementation.
Indian Ocean Pilot
Studies
The TAO Panel, in joint sessions with the CLIVAR Monsoon Panel, reviewed
scientific issues regarding ocean-atmosphere-land interactions of relevance
to variability and predictability of the Austral-Asian monsoon. Presentations
and discussions lead to indentification of the following set of priority
goals:
- To determine the
limits of predictability of the monsoon climate system.
- To assess the
relative contributions of the slowly varying boundary conditions and
the internal dynamics to the predictability of the monsoon.
- To evaluate the
impact of the monsoon on the predictability of the global climate system.
To achieve these goals,
it will be necessary to address a set of specific questions, namely:
- What is the spatial
and temporal variability of the monsoon system for intraseasonal, interannual
and decadal time scales?
- What are the specific
mechanisms of the annual cycle in the coupled ocean atmosphere-land
system in the monsoon regions?
- What are the mechanisms
of the intraseasonal oscillations affecting the monsoon regions?
- What are the fundamental
roles and mechanisms in ENSO-monsoon coupling, including the tropical
biennial oscillation and interdecadal modulations?
- What are the relative
roles of ocean processes in different oceans, and land surface processes
in determining monsoon variability?
- What are the relative
contributions of "chaotic" (local, internal atmosphere) versus deterministic
(lower boundary conditions) processes in monsoon predictability?
- How do tropical
- extratropical, tropospheric - stratospheric interactions influence
monsoon variations?
Given the enormous societal
impacts of monsoon rainfall variability in the Indo-Pacific region, there
are compelling reasons to develop coordinated field modeling and analysis
programs to address these questions. The Panel recognized however that present
in situ data bases are inadequate to address many of the outstanding
issues related to monsoons. Hence, it recommended that consideration be
given to pilot studies designed to enhance the climate data base in the
tropical Indian Ocean. It furthermore noted that a pilot scale moored measurement
program, appropriately designed, could provide high accuracy time series
data capable of addressing some of the unanswered questions about ocean-atmosphere
interactions in this part of the world oceans. Regions identified as urgently
in need of study from an ocean-atmosphere interaction perspective included
the Bay of Bengal and the eastern equatorial/south tropical Indian Ocean.
The TAO Panel will coordinate with the CLIVAR Monsoon Panel and the CLIVAR
Upper Ocean Panel in developing implementation strategies for monsoon related
research. |
