National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
United States Department of Commerce

Curriculum Vitae - Abbreviated

Curriculum Vitae - Abbreviated

Michael McPhaden

Last updated: June 9, 2025

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Michael James McPhaden

NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, Washington 98115

Email: michael.j.mcphaden@noaa.gov
Phone: (206) 526-6783

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

  • 2007-present Director, Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array (GTMBA) Project Office, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
  • 1992-2007 Director, Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array Project Office, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington
  • 1998-present Senior Scientist, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington
  • 1993-present Affiliate Professor, School of Oceanography, University of Washington
  • 1990-present Senior Fellow, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (formerly Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean), University of Washington
  • 1990-1993 Affiliate Associate Professor, School of Oceanography, University of Washington
  • 1988-1990 Affiliate Assistant Professor, School of Oceanography, University of Washington
  • 1987-2015 Senior Fellow, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (formerly Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research), University of Hawaii
  • 1986-1998 Oceanographer (various ranks), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington
  • 1984-1986 Research Assistant Professor, School of Oceanography, University of Washington
  • 1982-1984 Visiting Research Scientist, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington
  • 1980-1982 Research Scientist, Oceanography Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research

EDUCATION

  • 1980 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Ph.D., Physical Oceanography; Dissertation title: "Models of the Equatorial Ocean Circulation"
  • 1973 State University of New York at Buffalo, B.S., Physics, magna cum laude

HONORS, AWARDS, and CITATIONS

  • NOAA/OAR Daniel L. Albritton Outstanding Scientific Communicator Award, 2024
  • ScholarGPS Highly Ranked Scholar in Oceanography, 2024
  • Editor Citation for Excellence in Refereeing, Geophysical Research Letters, 2024
  • Top 100 World's Best Earth Science Scientists List (Research.com), 2023
  • Listed in Web of Science as Highly Cited Researcher in Cross-Field (Interdisciplinary) Science, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024
  • AGU College of Fellows Distinguished Lecturer, 2021-2023
  • Listed in Reuters Hot List of Most Influential Climate Scientists, 2021
  • Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 1995, 2016
  • Sverdrup Gold Medal, American Meteorological Society, 2016
  • Fellow, American Geophysical Union, 2014
  • Priestley Lecture, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia, 2012
  • President, American Geophysical Union, 2010 - 2012
  • Fridtjof Nansen Medal, European Geosciences Union, 2010
  • Nobel Peace Prize (shared) for contributions to Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
  • Fellow, American Meteorological Society, 2007
  • Guest Professor, Ocean University of China, 2006
  • Fellow, The Oceanography Society, 2005
  • Scientific American "Science & Technology Web Awards" for El Niño Theme Page, 2005
  • Presidential Rank Award for Meritorious Federal Service, 2004
  • Listed in Web of Science as Highly Cited Researcher in Geosciences, 2004
  • Grace Hopper Government Technology Award ("Gracie Award") for TAO Project Leadership in the Innovative Application of Information Technology, 2003
  • American Geophysical Union, Frontiers of Geophysics Lecturer, 2002 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting
  • American Meteorological Society, Walter Orr Roberts Lecturer, 2002
  • Public Service Award, Federal Executive Board, Seattle, 1999
  • American Meteorological Society, Special Award for Completing and Maintaining the TAO Array, 1999
  • American Geophysical Union, Sverdrup Lecturer, Fall 1998 Meeting
  • Department of Commerce, Gold Medal, 1997
  • NOAA/OAR Outstanding Publication Award, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004
  • NOAA/PMEL Outstanding Publication Award, 1989-1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2007
  • Phi Beta Kapa

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES

  • The Oceanography Society, 1988-present
  • American Geophysical Union, 1979-present
  • The American Meteorological Society, 1978-present
  • The European Geosciences Union, 2005-present

RECENT PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ACTIVITIES

  • Member, Scientific Organizing Committee, Wyrtki ENSO Science Symposium, 2025
  • Member, US Group on Earth Observations Drafting Committee, Earth Observations Societal Benefits Assessment Report: Climate, 2024
  • Member, AGU Legacy Committee, 2021-present
  • Member, Program Advisory Group for the UK-US Changing North Atlantic Program, 2021-2023
  • Member, Scientific Organizing Committee, WCRP-CLIVAR Workshop on Climate Interactions Among the Tropical Basins, 2021
  • Co-convenor, AGU Fall Meeting Special Session on ENSO in a Changing Climate, 2020
  • Member, International CLIVAR ENSO Conceptual Models Focus Group, 2020-present
  • Session co-chair, International Indian Ocean Science Conference (IIOSC-2020), Goa, India, 2020
  • Member, International CLIVAR Tropical Basin Interaction Research Focus Group, 2019-present
  • Member, The Oceanography Society Honors Nomination Committee, 2019-2021
  • Member, National Research Council Postdoc Mentoring Guide Review Committee, 2019-2020
  • Co-convenor, ENSO Science Symposium, Hobart, Australia, January 2019
  • Guest Editor, Ocean Dynamics (50th anniversary Liege Colloquium edition), 2018
  • Co-convenor, Second workshop on the Korea-US Indian Ocean Scientific (KUDOS) Research Program, San Diego, CA, 2018
  • Chair, Oceanographic Research Awards Committee, American Meteorological Society, 2019
  • Member, Awards Oversight Committee, American Meteorological Society, 2019
  • Member, Oceanographic Research Awards Committee, American Meteorological Society, 2017-2018
  • Member, Suomi Technology Medal Award Committee, American Meteorological Society, 2018-2019
  • Co-chair, Scientific Organizing Committee, Fourth International ENSO Conference, Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2018
  • Member, International review committee for the Tropical Atlantic Observing System, 2017- 2018
  • Member, Advisory Committee, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Ocean Research (CSHOR), Hobart, Australia, 2017-2022
  • Co-convenor, First workshop on the Korea-US Indian Ocean Scientific (KUDOS) Research Program, Seoul, South Korea, 2017
  • Member, The Oceanography Society Fellows Evaluation Committee, 2017-2019
  • Member, US IIOE-2 Scientific Steering Committee, 2016-present
  • Member, AGU Bowie Medal Committee, 2015-2018
  • Member, Committee on Researcher Involvement in the AMS, 2015-2017
  • Member, International CLIVAR ENSO Diversity Task Team, 2015-2018
  • Vice-Chair, AGU Development Board, 2015 - 2019
  • Chair, AGU Ethics Committee, 2015 - 2019
  • Member, Scientific Organizing Committee, International CLIVAR ENSO Workshop, Paris, France 2015
  • Member, Scientific Organizing Committee, International Workshop on ENSO Extremes, Sydney, Australia, 2015
  • Member, Science Planning Committee, International Symposium on the Indian Ocean, Goa, India, 2015
  • Convenor, AMS Annual Meeting Special Session on ENSO, Tropical Ocean -Atmosphere Interactions, and Global Climatic Impacts: 20 Years after TOGA, 2015
  • Member, International CLIVAR Indian Ocean Panel, 2003-present
  • Member, International CLIVAR Pacific Ocean Panel, 2001-present
  • Chairman, Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel, 2001-present
  • Member, International CLIVAR/OOPC OceanSITES Working Group, 2001-present
  • Editorial Board, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2001-present
  • Member, PIRATA Steering Group, 1995-present

REFEREED PUBLICATIONS (past 10 years)

Chen, Y., Y. Jin, Z. Liu, et al., 2025: Combined dynamical-deep learning ENSO forecasts. Nat. Commun., 16, 3845. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59173-8.

Foltz, G. R., et al., 2025: Toward an integrated pantropical ocean observing system, Front. Mar. Sci. (Ocean Observation), 12:1539183. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1539183.

Guan, C., M. J. McPhaden, S. Hu, F. Wang, Y. Li, and M. Cui, 2025: Barrier layer variability in the central equatorial Pacific associated with ENSO development. Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2024GL113396. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113396.

Jia, F., W. Cai, T. Geng, B. Gan, W. Zhong, L. Wu, M. J. McPhaden, 2025: Transition from multi-year La Niña to strong El Niño rare but increased under global warming. Science Bulletin, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2024.12.034.

Jiang, N., C. Zhu, Z.-Z. Hu, M. J. McPhaden, T. Lian, C. Zhou, C., et al., 2025: El Niño and sea surface temperature pattern effects lead to historically high global mean surface temperatures in 2023. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL113733. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113733.

Jiang, F., W. Zhang, J. Boucharel, F.-F. Jin, M. J. McPhaden, and M. F. Stuecker, 2025: Multi-season lead prediction of Atlantic Niño facilitated by Pacific Ocean precursors. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL111494. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111494.

Li, X., Y. Tang, M.J. McPhaden, et al., 2025: Quantifying the role of tropical Indian Ocean observations to central Pacific El Niño prediction. Environ. Res. Lett., 20., 074023. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/addbf3.

Liu, S., L. Dong, L. Wu, et al., 2025: Increased multi-year La Niña since 1960s driven by internal climate variability. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 8, 120. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00994-1

Peng, S., J. Callies, M. Nagura, and M. J. McPhaden, 2025: Yanai Waves in the Deep East Indian Ocean Observed with Seismic Ocean Tomography. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 55, 471–488. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-24-0107.1.

Vialard, J., F.-F. Jin, M. J. McPhaden, A. Fedorov, W. Cai, S.-I. An, et al., 2025: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) recharge oscillator conceptual model: Achievements and future prospects. Reviews of Geophysics, 63, e2024RG000843. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024RG000843.

Chen, H., Y. Jin, Z. Liu, X. Chen, D. Sun, M. J. McPhaden, A. Capotondi, and S. Lin, 2024: Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming. Nat Comm., 15, 4370. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48804-1.

Hu, Z.-Z., M. J. McPhaden, B. Huang, et al. 2024: Accelerated warming in the North Pacific since 2013. Nat. Clim. Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02088-x.

Jiang, N., C. Zhu, Z. Z Hu, M. J. McPhaden et al., 2024: Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023-24 El Niño. Sci. Rept., 14, 2521. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-52846-2.

McPhaden, M. J. K. Athulya, M. S. Girishkumar, and M. Orlić, 2024: Ekman revisited: Surface currents to the left of the winds in the Northern Hemisphere. Sci. Adv., 10, eadr0282.

McPhaden, M. J., Beal, L. M., Bhaskar, T.V.S.U., Lee, T., Nagura, M., Strutton, P.G., & Yu, L., 2024: Chapter 17. The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS). In C. C. Ummenhofer, & R. R. Hood (Eds.), The Indian Ocean and its role in the global climate system. Amsterdam: Elsevier. pp. 393-419, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822698-8.00002-0.

McPhaden, M. J., S. Jarugula, L. C. Aroucha, and J. F. Lübbecke, 2024: Indian Ocean Dipole intensifies Benguela Niño through Congo River discharge. Nature Comm. Earth Environ., 5:779, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01955-x.

Oh, J.-H., J.-S. Kug , S.-I. An, F.-F. Jin, M. J. McPhaden, and J. Shin, 2024: Emergent climate change patterns originating from deep ocean warming in climate mitigation scenarios.  Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01928-0.

Phillips, H. E., Nagura, M., McPhaden, M. J., Vinayachandran, P. N., Beal, L., Talley, L., & Menezes, V., 2024: Chapter 8: Indian Ocean circulation. In C. C. Ummenhofer, & R. R. Hood (Eds.), The Indian Ocean and its role in the global climate system. Amsterdam: Elsevier. pp. 169-203. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822698-8.00012-3.

Planton, Y. Y., J. Lee, A. T. Wittenberg, P. J. Gleckler, E. Guilyardi, S. McGregor, and M. J. McPhaden, 2024: Estimating uncertainty in simulated ENSO statistics. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004147. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004147.

Sprintall, J., M. Nagura, J. Hermes, M. K. Roxy, M. J. McPhaden, E. Pattabhi Ram Rao, T. Srinivasa Kumar, S. Thurston., J. Li, M. Belbeoch, and V. Turpin, 2024: COVID Impacts Cause Critical Gaps in the Indian Ocean Observing System. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 105, E725–E741, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0270.1.

Tan, W., Hu, Z.-Z., M. J. McPhaden, C. Zhu, X. Li, and Y. Liu, 2024: On the divergent evolution of ENSO after the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108198. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108198.

Tuchen, F. P., R. C. Perez, G. R. Foltz, M. J.  McPhaden, and R. Lumpkin, 2024: Strengthening of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean circulation over the past three decades. J. Geophys. Res., 129, e2024JC021343, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021343.

Zhao, S., F. F. Jin, M. F. Stuecker, et al., 2024: Explainable El Niño predictability from climate mode interactions. Nature, 630, 891–898. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07534-6.

Athulya, K., M. S. Girishkumar, M.J. McPhaden, and S. S. Kolukula, 2023: Seasonal variation of the land breeze system in the southwestern Bay of Bengal and its influence on air-sea interactions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 128, e2022JC019477. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC019477.

Cai, W., F. Jia, S. Li, A. Purich, G. Wang, L. Wu1, B. Gan, A. Santoso, T. Geng, B. Ng, Y. Yang, D. Ferreira, G. A. Meehl, and M. J. McPhaden, 2023: Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01610-x.

Cai, W., B. Ng, T. Geng, F. Jia, L. Wu, G. Wang, Y. Liu, B. Gan, K. Yang, A. Santoso, X. Lin, Z. Li, Yi Liu, Y. Yang, F.-F. Jin, M. Collins, and M. J. McPhaden, 2023: Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, 407-418. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8.

Capotondi, A., S. McGregor, S., M. J. McPhaden, et al., 2023: Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability. Nature Rev. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00486-x.

Connell, K.J., M.J. McPhaden, G.R. Foltz, R.C. Perez, and K. Grissom, 2023. Surviving piracy and the coronavirus pandemic. Oceanography, 36(2–3):44–45, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2023.212.

Geng, T., F. Jia, W. Cai, L. Wu, Bolan Gan, Z. Jing, S. Li, and M. J. McPhaden, 2023: Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming.  Nature, 619, 774-781.

Guan, C., F. Tian, M. J. McPhaden, S. Hu, and F. Wang, 2023: Zonal structure of tropical Pacific surface salinity anomalies affects the eastern and central Pacific El Niños differently. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105554. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105554.

Jarugula, S., and M. J. McPhaden, 2023: Indian Ocean Dipole affects eastern tropical Atlantic salinity through Congo River Basin hydrology. Nature Comm. Earth Environ. 4, 366. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01027-6.

Jiang, F., W. Zhang, F.-F. Jin, M. F. Stuecker, A. Timmermann, M. J. McPhaden, et al., 2023: Resolving the tropical Pacific/Atlantic interaction conundrum. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103777. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103777.

Li, X., Z.-Z. Hu, M. J. McPhaden, C. Zhu, and Y. Liu, 2023: Triple-Dip La Niñas in 1998-2001 and 2020-2023: Impact of Mean State Changes. J. Geophys. Res., 128, e2023JD038843. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038843.

McClure, M.M., C.L. Sabine, R.A. Feely, S.R. Hammond, C. Meinig, M.J. McPhaden, P.J. Stabeno, and E. Bernard, 2023. The history and evolution of PMEL: Purposeful research that impacts environmental policy. Oceanography, 36(2–3):10–25, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2023.235.

McPhaden, M. J., 2023: The 2020-2022 triple-dip La Niña [in "State of the Climate in 2022"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104 (9), S157–S158, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0090.1.

McPhaden, M.J., K.J. Connell, G.R. Foltz, R.C. Perez, and K. Grissom, 2023. Tropical ocean observations for weather and climate: A decadal overview of the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array. Oceanography, 36(2–3):32–43, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2023.211.

McPhaden, M. J., and C. Karamperidou, 2023: Ambushed in Paradise: La Niña Brought Deadly Drought to a Tropical Eden. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, 415-418.

Nagura, M., and M. J. McPhaden, 2023: Dual-Frequency Wind-Driven Mixed Rossby-Gravity Waves in the Equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 53, 1535–1553, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-22-0222.1.

Wang, B., W. Sun, C. Jin, X. Luo, Y.-M. Yang, T. Li, B. Xiang, M. J. McPhaden, M. A. Cane, F.-F. Jin, F. Liu and J. Liu, 2023: Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas. Nature Climate Change, 13, 1075–1081.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6.

Zhang, L., C. Wang, W. Han, M. J. McPhaden, A. Hu, W. Xing, 2023: Emergence of the Central Atlantic Niño. Sci. Adv., 9, eadi5507. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi5507

De Rovere, F., D. Zanchettin, M.J. McPhaden, and A. Rubino, 2022: Assessment of radiative heating errors in Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array marine air temperature measurements. Environ. Res. Lett., 17. 014040, DOI:10.1088/17 48-9326/ac42fc.

Geng, T., W. Cai, L. Wu, Y. Yang, S. Li, S. Wang, Z.Chen, and M. J. McPhaden, 2022: Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nat. Commun., 13, 6616. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33930-5.

Guan, C., F. Tian, M.J. McPhaden, F. Wang, S. Hu, and R. -H. Zhang, 2022: Zonal structure of tropical Pacific surface salinity anomalies affects ENSO intensity and asymmetry. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL096197. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096197.

Han, W., L. Zhang, G. A. Meehl, S. Kido, T.Tozuka, Y. Li, M. J. McPhaden, A. Hu, A. Cazenave, N. Rosenbloom, G. Strand, B. J. West, and W. Xing, 2022: Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia. Nat. Commun., 13:6410. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34003-3.

Hasan, N.A., Y. Chikamoto, and M.J. McPhaden, 2022: The Influence of tropical basin interactions on the 2020-22 double-dip La Niña. Front. Clim. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.1001174.

Heukamp, F.O., P. Brandt, M. Dengler, F.P. Tuchen, M.J. McPhaden, and J.N. Moum, 2022: Tropical instability waves and wind-forced cross-equatorial flow in the central Atlantic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099325.

Jarugula, S.L., and M.J. McPhaden, 2022: Ocean mixed layer response to two post-monsoon cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in 2018. J. Geophys., 127, e2022JC018874. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018874.

Liu, M., M. J. McPhaden, H.-L. Ren, M. A. Balmaseda, and R. Wang, 2022: Oceanic heat content as a predictor of the Indian Ocean Dipole. J. of Geophys. Res. 127, e2022JC018896. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018896

McPhaden, M.J. and C. Karamperidou, 2022: La Niña Came to Eden. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(12), E2862-E2877. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0343.1

Tuchen, F.P., P. Brandt, J. Hahn, R. Hummels, G. Krahmann, B. Bourlès, C. Provost, M.J. McPhaden, and J.M. Toole, 2022: Two Decades of Full-Depth Current Velocity Observations From a Moored Observatory in the Central Equatorial Atlantic at 0ºN, 23ºW. Frontiers Mar. Sci. doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910979.

Wang, G., W. Cai, A. Santoso, A. et al., 2022: Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 649-654. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01398-2

Xu, W., J. Lee, B. Fox-Kemper, Y. Planton, and M. J. McPhaden, 2022: The Andes Affect ENSO Statistics, J. Climate, 35, 3477-3491. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/21/JCLI-D-21-0866.1.xml.

Cai, W., B. Ng, T. Geng, L. Wu, A. Santoso, and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: Addendum: Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming. Nature. 126, e2020JC016840. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03261-4.

Cai, W., A. Santoso, M. Collins, et al., 2021: Changing El Niño Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z.

Feng, M., Y. Zhang, H.H. Hendon, M.J. McPhaden, and A.G. Marshall, 2021: Niño 4 west (Niño-4W) sea surface temperature variability. J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2021JC017591. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017591.

Girishkumar, M.S., J. Joseph, M.J. McPhaden, and E. Pattabhi Rama Rao, 2021: Atmospheric Cold Pools and Their Influence on Sea Surface Temperature in the Bay of Bengal. J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2021JC017297. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017297.

Iskandar, I., M. Nagura, and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: Role of the eastern boundary-generated waves on the termination of 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole event. Geosci. Lett. 8, 35. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-021-00205-8.

Jin, Y., Z. Liu, and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: A Theory of the Spring Persistence Barrier on ENSO. Part III: The Role of Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content, J. Climate, 34, 8567-8577. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0070.1.

Joseph, J., M.S. Girishkumar, M.J. McPhaden, and E. Pattabhi Rama Rao, 2021: Diurnal variability of atmospheric cold pool events and associated air-sea interactions in the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon. Clim. Dyn., 56, 837-853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05506-w.

Lee, J., Y. Y. Planton, P.J. Gleckler, K.R. Sperber, E. Guilyardi, A.T. Wittenberg, M.J. McPhaden and G. Pallotta, 2021: Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed? Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095041. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095041.

Nagura, M. and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: Interannual variability in sea surface height at southern mid-latitudes of the Indian Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 51, 1595-1609. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0279.1.

Nagura, M., and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: Predicting interannual variability in sea surface height along the west coast of Australia using a simple ocean model. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094592. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094592.

Planton, Y.Y., J. Vialard, E. Guilyardi, M. Lengaigne, and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: The Asymmetric Influence of Ocean Heat Content on ENSO Predictability in the CNRM-CM5 Coupled General Circulation Model. J. Climate, 34, 5775-5793. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0633.1.

Planton, Y.Y., and co-authors, 2021: Evaluating climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102, E193-E217. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0337.1.

Power, S., M. Lengaigne, A. Capotondi, M. Khodri, J. Vialard, B. Jebri, E. Guilyardi, S. McGregor, J.-S. Kug, M. Newman, M.J. McPhaden, G. Meehl, D. Smith, J. Cole, J. Emile-Geay, D. Vimont, A.T. Wittenberg, M. Collins, G.-I. Kim, W. Cai, Y. Okamura, C. Chung, K.M. Cobb, F. Delage, Y.Y. Planton, A. Levine, F. Zhu, J. Sprintall, E. Di Lorenzo, X. Zhang, J.-J. Luo, X. Lin, M. Balmaseda, G. Wang, B.J. Henley, 2021: Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects. Science, 374, eaay9165. DOI: 10.1126/science.aay9165.

Pujiana, K., and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: Biweekly mixed Rossby-gravity waves in the equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2020JO016840. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016840.

Shroyer, E., et al., 2021: Bay of Bengal Intraseasonal Oscillations and the 2018 Monsoon Onset. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0113.1.

Yu, J-Y., E. Campos, Y. Du, T. Eldevik, S.T. Gille, T. Losada, M.J. McPhaden, and L.H. Smedsrud, 2021: Variability of the Oceans. In: Interacting Climates of Ocean Basins (C.R. Mechoso, Ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 358pp.

Zhang, L., W. Han, G.A. Meehl, A. Hu, N. Rosenbloom, T. Shinoda, and M.J. McPhaden, 2021: Diverse Impacts of the Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 34, 9057-9070. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/22/JCLI-D-21-0085.1.xml.

Beal, L.M., J. Vialard, M.K. Roxy, J. Li, M. Andres, H. Annamalai, M. Feng, W. Han, R. Hood, T. Lee, M. Lengaigne, R. Lumpkin, Y. Masumoto, M.J. McPhaden, M. Ravichandran, T. Shinoda, B.M. Sloyan, P.G. Strutton, A.C. Subramanian, T. Tozuka, C.C. Ummenhofer, A.S. Unnikrishnan, J. Wiggert, L. Yu, L. Cheng, D.G. Desbruyères, and V. Parvathi, 2020: A roadmap to IndOOs-2: Better observations of the rapidly-warming Indian Ocean. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101. E1891-E1913. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0209.1.

Cai, W., M.J. McPhaden, A.M. Grimm, et al., 2020: Climate impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on South America. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 215-231. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3.

Cai, W., B. Ng, T. Geng, L. Wu, A. Santoso, and M.J. McPhaden, 2020 Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming. Nature, 585, 68-73. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2641-x.

Capotondi, A., A.T. Wittenberg, J.-S. Kug, K. Takahashi, and M.J. McPhaden, 2020: ENSO Diversity. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eds M.J. McPhaden, A. Santoso and W. Cai). AGU Monograph, doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch4.

Chikamoto, Y., Z.F. Johnson, S.-Y. Simon Wang, M.J. McPhaden, and T. Mochizuki, 2020: El Niño Southern Oscillation evolution modulated by Atlantic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 125, e2020JC016318. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016318.

Girishkumar, M.S., K. Ashin, M.J. McPhaden, B. Balaji, and B. Praveenkumar, 2020: Estimation of vertical heat diffusivity at the base of the mixed layer in the Bay of Bengal. J. Geophys. Res., 125, e2019JC015402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015402.

Hu, Z.-Z., A. Kumar, B. Huang, J. Zhu, M. L'Heueux, M.J. McPhaden, and J.-Y. Yu, 2020: The Interdecadel Shift of ENSO Properties in 1999/2000: A Review. J. Climate, 33, 4441-4462. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0316.1.

Hu, Z.-Z., M.J. McPhaden, A. Kumar, J.-Y. Yu and N.C. Johnson, 2020: Uncoupled El Niño Warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL08762. DOI:10.1029/2020GL087621.

Hu, S., J. Sprintall, C. Guan, M.J. McPhaden, F. Wang, D.Hu, and W. Cai, 2020: Deep-reaching acceleration of global mean ocean circulation over the past two decades, Sci. Adv., 6. eaax7727.

Johnson, Z.F., Y. Chikamoto, S.S. Wang, M.J. McPhaden, and T. Mochizuki, 2020: Pacific decadal oscillation remotely forced by the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans. Clim.Dyn. 55, 789-811 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05295-2.

Karamperidou, C., M.F. Stuecker, A. Timmermann, K.-S. Yun, S.-S. Lee, F.-F. Jin, A. Santoso, M.J. McPhaden, and W. Cai, 2020: ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-Perspectives, and Outlook. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eds M.J. McPhaden, A. Santoso and W. Cai). AGU Monograph, doi:10.1002/9781119548164ch21.

McPhaden, M.J., T. Lee, S. Fournier, and M.A. Balmaseda, 2020: ENSO Observations. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eds M.J. McPhaden, A. Santoso and W. Cai). AGU Monograph, doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch3.

McPhaden, M.J., A. Santoso, and W. Cai, 2020: Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eds M.J. McPhaden, A. Santoso and W. Cai). AGU Monograph, doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch1.

Pujiana, K. and M.J. McPhaden, 2020: Intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Indian ocean and their propagation into the Indonesian seas. J. Geophys. Res., 125, e2019JC015839. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015839.

Rubino, A., D. Zanchettin, F. De Rovere and M.J. McPhaden, 2020: On the interchangeability of sea-surface and near-surface air temperature anomalies in climatologies. Sci. Rept., 10, 7433. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64167-1.

Bourlès, B.M. Araujo, M.J. McPhaden, P. Brandt, G. Foltz, R. Lumpkin, H. Giordani, F. Hernandez, N. Lefèvre, P. Nobre, E. Campos, R. Saravanan, J. Trotte-Duhà, M. Dengler, J. Hahn, R. Hummels, J. Lübbecke, M. Rouault, L. Corim, A. Sutton, M. Jochum, and R. Perez, 2019: PIRATA: A sustained observing system for tropical Atlantic Climate research and forecasting. Earth Space Sci., 6, 577-616. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000428.

Cai, W.L. Wu, M. Lengaigne, Tim Li, S. McGregor, J.-S. Kug, J.-Y. Yu, M.F. Stuecker, A. Santoso, X. Li, Y.-G. Ham, Y. Chikamoto, B. Ng, M.J. McPhaden, Y. Du, D. Dommenget, F. Jia, J.B. Kajtar, N. Keenlyside, X. Lin, J.-J. Luo, M. Martín del Rey, Y. Ruprich-Robert, G. Wang, S.-P. Xie, Y. Yang, S.M. Kang, J.-Y. Choi, B. Gan, G.-I. Kim, C.-E. Kim, S. Kim, J.-H. Kim, P. Chang, 2019: Pan-tropical climate interactions. Science, 363(6430), eaav4236, DOI: 10.1126/science.aav4236.

Cyriac, A., M.J. McPhaden, H.E. Phillips, N.L. Bindoff, and M. Feng, 2019: Seasonal evolution of the surface layer heat balance in the eastern subtropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 6459-6477. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014559.

Davis, R.E., L.D. Talley, D. Roemmich, W.B. Owens, D.L. Rudnick, J. Toole, R. Weller, M.J. McPhaden, and J.A. Barth, 2019: 100 Years of Progress in Ocean Observing Systems. Am. Meteorol. Soc., Meteorological Monographs, 59, 3.1-3.46, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0014.1.

Foltz, G.R., et al, 2019: The Tropical Atlantic Observing System. Front. Mar. Sci., doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00206.

Guan, C., S. Hu, M.J. McPhaden, F. Wang, S. Gao, and Y. Hou, 2019: Dipole structure of mixed layer salinity in response to El Niño-La Niña asymmetry in the tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 46, 12,165-12,172. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084817.

Guan, C., M.J. McPhaden, F. Wang, and S. Hu, 2019: Quantifying the role of oceanic feedbacks on ENSO asymmetry. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2140-2148. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081332.

Hermes, J.C., et al, 2019: A sustained ocean observing system in the Indian Ocean for climate related scientific knowledge and societal needs. Front. Mar. Sci., doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00355.

Hu, Z.-Z., B. Huang, J. Zhu, A. Kumar, and M.J. McPhaden, 2019: On the variety of coastal El Niño Events. Clim. Dyn., 52(12),7537-7552. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4290-4.

Lasitha Perera, G., G. Chen, M.J. McPhaden, T. Priyadarshana, K. Huang, and D. Wang, 2019: Meridional and zonal eddy-induced heat and salt transport in the Bay of Bengal and their seasonal modulation. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 8079-8101. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015124.

Leung, S., L. Thompson, M.J. McPhaden, and K.A.S. Mislan, 2019: ENSO drives near-surface oxygen and vertical habitat variability in the tropical Pacific. Environ. Res. Lett., 14 (6), 064020. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c13.

Lim, E.-P., H.H. Hendon, P. Hope, C. Chung, F. Delage, and M.J. McPhaden, 2019: Continuation of tropical Pacific Ocean temperature trend may weaken extreme El Niño and its linkage to the Southern Annular Mode. Scientific Reports, 9, 17044. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-53371-3.

McPhaden, M.J., A. Santoso, and W. Cai, 2019: Understanding ENSO in a Charging Climate. Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 100, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EO124159.

Pujiana, K., M.J. McPhaden, A.L. Gordon, and A.M. Napitu, 2019: Unprecedented response of Indonesian throughflow to anomalous Indo-Pacific climatic forcing in 2016. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 3737-3754. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014574.

Puy, M., J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, E. Guilyardi, A. Voldoire, M. Balmaseda, G. Madec, C. Menkes, and M.J. McPhaden, 2019: Influence of Westerly Wind Events Stochasticity on El Niño amplitude: the case of 2014 vs. 2015. Clim. Dyn., 52, 7435-7454. DOI 10.1007/s00382-017-3938-9

Roxy, M.K., P. Dasgupta, M.J. McPhaden, T. Suematsu, C. Zhang, and D. Kim, 2019: Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle. Nature, 575, 647-651. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1764-4.

Sutton, A.J., et al., 2019: Autonomous seawater pCO2 and pH time series from 40 surface buoys and the emergence of anthropogenic trends, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 421-439. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-421-2019.

Cai, W., G. Wang, B. Dewitte, L. Wu, A. Santoso, K. Takahashi, Y. Yang, A. Carréric and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming. Nature. 564, 201-206. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0776-9.

Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014. Science Reports, 8, 2249, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-20294-4.

Huang, K., M.J. McPhaden, W. Wang, Q. Xie, J. Chen, Y. Shu, Q. Wang, J. Li, J. Yao, D. Wang, 2018: Vertical propagation of mid-depth zonal currents associated with surface wind forcing in the equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 123, 7290-7307. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC013977.

Levine, A.F.Z., D.M.W. Frierson, M.J. McPhaden, 2018: AMO forcing of Multidecadal Pacific ITCZ variability. J. Climate, 31, 5749-5764.

McPhaden, M.J., 2018: Understanding and Predicting El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. In: Chassignet, E.P., A. Pascual, J. Tintoré, and J. Verron (Eds.). New Frontiers in Operational Oceanography. GODAE OceanView, 815pp, https://doi.org/10.17125/gov2018.

Nagura, M. and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: The Shallow Overturning Circulation in the Indian Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 48, 413-434.

Pujiana, K. and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Ocean's response to the convectively coupled Kelvin waves in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 123, 5727-5741. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC013858.

Scannell, H.A. and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Seasonal mixed layer temperature balance in the southeastern tropical Atlantic. J. Geophys. Res., 123, 5557-5570. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014099.

Timmermann, A., et al, 2018: El Niño Southern Oscillation Complexity. Nature, 559, 535-545. https://doi.org/10.1038/S41586-018-0252-6.

Yeh, S.-W., W. Cai, S.-K. Min, M.J. McPhaden, D. Dommenget, B. Dewitte, M. Collins, K. Ashok, S.-I. An, B.-Y. Yim, and J.-S. Kug, 2018: ENSO atmospheric teleconnections and their response to greenhouse gas forcing. Rev. Geophys., 56, 185-206. doi:10.1002/2017RG000568.

Zhang, Y., M. Feng, Y. Du, H. Philips, N. Bindoff, and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Strengthened Indonesian Throughflow drives decadal warming in the southern Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6167-6175. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078265.

Brainard, R.E., T. Oliver, M.J. McPhaden, A. Cohen, R. Veneers, A. Heenan, B. Vargas-Angel, R. Rotjan, S. Mangubhai, E. Flint, and S.A. Hunter, 2017: Ecological Impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, S21-S26.

Chen, G., W. Han, Y. Li, M.J. McPhaden, J. Chen, W. Wang, and D. Wang, 2017: Strong Intraseasonal Variability of Meridional Currents near 5ºN in the Eastern Indian Ocean: Characteristics and Causes. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 47, 979-998.

Cuypers, Y., P. Bouruet-Aubertot, J. Vialard, and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: Focusing of internal tides by near-inertial waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL072625.

Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: The effects of external forcing and internal variability of the formation of interhemispheric sea surface temperature gradient trends in the Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 30, 9077 - 9095.

Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: Why has the relationship between Indian and Pacific Ocean decadal variability changed in recent decades? J. Climate, 30, 1971-1983.

Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: The role of external forcing and internal variability in regulating global mean surface temperatures on decadal timescales. Environ, Res. Lett., 12, 034011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5dd8.

Girishkumar, M.S., J. Joseph, N.P. Thangaprakash, P. Vijay and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: Mixed layer temperature budget for the northward propagating summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) in the central Bay of Bengal. J. Geophys. Res., 122,8841 - 8854. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013073

Khodri, M., T. Izumo, J. Vialard, C. Cassou, M. Lengaigne, J. Mignot, E. Guilyardi, N. Lebas, Y. Ruprich-Robert, A. Robock, and M.J. McPhaden, 2017. How tropical explosive volcanic eruptions trigger El Niño events by cooling tropical Africa. Nature Comm., 8, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00755-6.

Levine, A.F.Z., M.J. McPhaden, and D.M.W. Frierson, 2017: The impact of the AMO on multidecadal ENSO variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3,877-3,886, doi:10.1002/2017GL072524.

Lübbecke, J.F., and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: Symmetry of the Atlantic Niño mode, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 965-973, doi:10.1002/2016GL071829.

McGregor, S., A. Sen Gupta, D. Dommenget, T. Lee, M.J. McPhaden, and W.S. Kessler, 2017: Factors influencing the skill of synthesized satellite wind products in the tropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 122, doi:10.1002/2016JC012340.

Santoso, A., M.J. McPhaden, W. Cai, 2017: The defining characteristics of ENSO extremes and the strong 2015/16 El Niño. Rev. Geophys., 55, 1079-1129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560.

Wang, G., W. Cai, B. Gan, L. Wu, A. Santoso, X. Lin, Z. Chen and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5ºC warming stabilizaton. Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3351.

Wang, Y. and M.J. McPhaden, 2017: Seasonal Cycle of Cross-Equatorial Flow in the Central Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JC012537.

Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2016: Interhemispheric SST gradient trends in the Indian Ocean prior to and during the recent global warming hiatus. J. Climate, 29, 9077-9095.

Guan, C. and M.J. McPhaden, 2016: Ocean processes affecting the 21st century shift in ENSO SST variability. J. Climate, 29, 6861-6879.

Levine, A.F.Z., F.F. Jin, M.J. McPhaden, 2016: Extreme Noise-Extreme El Niño: How State-Dependent Noise Forcing Creates El Niño-La Niña Asymmetry. J. Climate, 29, 5483-5499. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0091.1

Levine, A.F.Z., and M.J. McPhaden, 2016: How the July 2014 Easterly Wind Burst Gave the 2015-6 El Niño a Head Start. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6503-6510. DOI:10.1002/2016GL069204.

Nagura, M. and M.J. McPhaden, 2016: Zonal propagation of near surface zonal currents in relation to surface wind forcing in the equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 3623-3638.

Sutton, A.J., C.L. Sabine, R.A. Feely, W.-J. Cai, M.F. Cronin, M.J. McPhaden, J.M. Morell, J.A. Newton, J.-H. Noh, S.R. Ólafsdóttir, J.E. Salisbury, U. Send, D.C. Vandemark, 2016: Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside pre-industrial bounds. Biogeosci., 13, 5065-5083.

Wenegrat, J.O. and M.J. McPhaden, 2016: A simple analytical model of the diurnal Ekman layer. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 2877-2894.

Wenegrat, J.O. and M.J. McPhaden, 2016: Wind, waves, and fronts: Frictional effects in a generalized Ekman Model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 371-394.

Amaya, D. J., S.-P. Xie, A. J. Miller, and M. J. McPhaden, 2015: Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends during the 21st century global warming hiatus. J. Geophys. Res., 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC010906.

Cai, W. A. Santoso, G. Wang, S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, K. Cobb, M. Collins, E. Guilyardi, F.-F.Jin, J.-S. Kug, M. Lengaigne, M. J. McPhaden, K. Takahashi, A. Timmermann, G. Vecchi, M. Watanabe, L. Wu, 2015: ENSO and global warming. Nature Climate Change, 5, 849-859.

Cai, W., G. Wang, A. Santoso, M.J. McPhaden, L. Wu, F.-F. Jin, A. Timmermann, M. Collins, G. Vecchi, M. Lengaigne, M.H. England, D. Dommenget, K. Takahashi, and E. Guilyardi, 2015: Increasing frequency of extreme La Niña events induced by greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change, 5, 132-137, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2492.

Chen, G., W. Han, Y. Li, Dongxiao Wang, M. J. McPhaden, 2015: Seasonal-to-Interannual Time Scale Dynamics of the Equatorial Undercurrent in the Indian Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 1532-1553.

Legler, D.M., H.J. Freeland, R. Lumpkin, G. Ball, M.J. McPhaden, S. North, R. Crowley, G.J. Goni, U. Send & M.A. Merrifield, 2015: The current status of the real-time in situ Global Ocean Observing System for operational oceanography. J. Operational Oceanogr., 8, Suppl. 2, s189-s200.

Levine, A. F. Z., and M. J. McPhaden, 2015: The annual cycle in ENSO growth rate as a cause of the spring predictability barrier. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5034–5041, doi:10.1002/2015GL064309

McPhaden, M. J., 2015: Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nature Climate Change, 5, 791-795.

McPhaden, M. J., A. Timmermann, M. J. Widlansky, M. A. Balmaseda and T. N. Stockdale, 2015: The Curious Case of the El Niño that Never Happened: A Perspective from 40 Years of Progress in Climate Research and Forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1647-1665, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00089.1

McPhaden, M. J., Y. Wang, and M. Ravichandran, 2015: Volume transports of the Wyrtki Jets and their Relationship to the Indian Ocean Dipole. J. Geophys. Res., 120, 5302-5317, doi:10.1002/2015JC010901.

Strutton, P. G., V. J. Coles, R. R. Hood, R. J. Matear, M. J. McPhaden and H. E. Phillips, 2015: Biogeochemical variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition. Biogeochem., 12, 2367-2382, doi:10.5194/bg-12-1-2015.

Wenegrat, J. O. and M. J. McPhaden, 2015: Dynamics of surface layer diurnal cycle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean (0°, 23°W), J. Geophys. Res.,120, 563-81, doi: 10.1002/2014JC010504.

Cai, W., S. Borlace, M. Lengaigne, P. van Rensch, M. Collins, G. Vecchi, A. Timmermann, A. Santoso, M. J. McPhaden, L. Wu, M. England, E. Guilyardi, and F.-F. Jin, 2014: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change, 4, 111–116. doi:10.1038/nclimate2100.

England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A. Timmermann, W. Cai, A. Sen Gupta, M. J. McPhaden, A. Purich, and A. Santoso, 2014: Recently intensified Pacific Ocean wind-‐driven circulation and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nature Climate Change, 4, 222–227. doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.

Han, W., J. Vialard, M.J. McPhaden, T. Lee, Y. Masomoto, M. Feng, and W. de Ruijter, 2014: Indian Ocean decadal variability: a review. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1679-1703.

Hood, R. R., M. J. McPhaden, and E. Urban, 2014: New Indian Ocean program builds on scientific legacy. EOS, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 95, 349-60.

Kumar, B. P., J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, V.S.N. Murty, G. R. Foltz, M. J. McPhaden, S. Pous, and C. D. Montegut, 2014: Processes of interannual mixed layer temperature variability in the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2377-2397.

Lee, T., G. Lagerloef, H.-Y. Kao, M. J. McPhaden, J. Willis, and M. M. Gierach, 2014: The influence of salinity on tropical Atlantic instability waves and eddies. J. Geophys. Res., 41, 7933–7941.

Lü̈bbecke, J. F. and M. J. McPhaden, 2014: Assessing the 21st century shift in ENSO variability in terms of the Bjerknes stability index. J. Climate, 27, 2577-2587. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00438.1.

Lü̈bbecke, J. F. N. L. Burls, C. J. C. Reason, and M. J. McPhaden, 2014: Variability in the South Atlantic anticyclone and the Atlantic Niño mode. J. Climate, 27, 8135-8150. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00202.1

McPhaden, M. J. and M. Nagura, 2014: Indian Ocean Dipole interpreted in terms of Recharge Oscillator theory. Clim. Dyn., 42, 1569–1586. doi 10.1007/s00382-013-1765-1.

Nagura, M. and M. J. McPhaden, 2014: Zonal momentum budget along the equator in the Indian Ocean from a high resolution ocean general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 4444-4461, doi:10.1002/2014JC009895.

Nyadjro, E. and M. J. McPhaden, 2014: Variability of zonal currents in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean on seasonal to interannual time scales. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 7969-7986, doi:10.1002/2014JC010380.

Praveen Kumar, B., J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, V.S.N. Murty, G.R. Foltz, M.J. McPhaden, S. Pous, and C. de Boyer Montégut, 2014: Processes of interannual mixed layer temperature variability in the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2377-2397, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2059-y.

Rodrigues, R. R. and M. J. McPhaden, 2014: Why did the 2011-12 La Niña cause a severe drought in the Brazilian Northeast? Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1012–1018. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058703.

Servain, J., G. Caniaux, Y. K. Kouadio, M. J. McPhaden, and M. Araujo, 2014: Recent Climatic Trends in the Tropical Atlantic. Clim. Dyn., 41, 3071-3089, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2168-7.

Sutton, A. J. R. A. Feely, C. L. Sabine, M. J. McPhaden, T. Takahashi, F. P. Chavez, G. E. Friederich, and J. T. Mathis, 2014: Natural variability and anthropogenic change in equatorial Pacific surface ocean pCO2 and pH. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 28, 131–145. doi:10.1002/2013GB004679.

Wen, C., A. Kumar, Y. Xue, and M. J. McPhaden, 2014: Understanding Causes for Change in ENSO Characteristics after 1999: An oceanic perspective. J. Climate, 27, 7230-7249.

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