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Summary

Opening of the meeting

Summary of current conditions in the Tropical Pacific

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Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
W. Woodward, NOAA/NOS, U.S.A.
U.S. GOOS planning efforts continued to advance during 1994, coordinated by a new ad hoc Interagency Committee led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with participation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Navy, and the Department of State. A U.S. National GOOS report was prepared and submitted with other national reports to the Intergovernmental Committee for GOOS (I-GOOS).

In order to insure a sound scientific basis for every aspect of GOOS, the NOAA Administrator, Dr. D. James Baker, requested assistance for United States planning from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. An Academy panel was assembled and a one day meeting was convened to review and assess United States activity in the development of a GOOS and the United States role in international GOOS. A report of this assessment has been prepared that includes the following recommendations. The United States should:

• Take an immediate and assertive leadership role in planning and deploying GOOS.
• Formalize GOOS planning by establishing an organizational entity such as a GOOS Interagency Committee with full time staff.
• Develop a formal mechanism for obtaining advice from the scientific, management and commercial communities.
• Encourage and support intergovernmental and scientific/planning and advisory groups among international partners.
• Expand GOOS activities of United States agencies as soon as possible by augmenting the present operational Ocean Observing Systems (OOS) with, for examples, parts of TOGA, WOCE, and JGOFS, and continue satellite observations.
• Include a systematic research and development effort to insure that key parameters are measured adequately and to enable the system to evolve as new methods/instruments become available.

With the end of TOGA, the TTIP will be jointly sponsored by international GCOS/GOOS and CLIVAR. During this evolution, to help insure continuity of the U.S. TOGA observing system components, the TTIP should maintain a close linkage with the U.S. GOOS efforts.

As a result of recommendations of the TOGA Scientific Steering Group (SSG), the TTIP should be jointly sponsored by the appropriate WCRP programmes (CLIVAR), the GCOS, (and possibly GOOS). Administrative responsibility will be assumed by the GCOS JPO at the conclusion of the TOGA programme. The Director offered the support of the JPO to assist TTIP as appropriate.

• To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled climate system, in co-operation with other relevant climate-research and observing programmes.
• To extend the record of climate variability over the time-scales of interest through the assembly of quality-controlled paleo-climatic and instrumental data sets.
• To extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction through the development of global coupled models.

Specifically the objectives of CLIVAR/GOALS are:

• To describe and understand seasonal to interannual climate variability and predictability through the analysis of observations and modelling of the coupled climate system.
• To improve the accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction through programmes of coupled modelling of the global upper ocean, atmosphere, land and ice system.
• To develop and implement appropriate observing, computing and data collection and dissemination programmes needed to understand seasonal to interannual climate variability and to predict variations, in cooperation with other relevant climate-research and -observing programmes.

The CLIVAR SSG will be responsible for the whole programme and integrating the various parts. This is especially relevant, since it is clear that interannual variability such as ENSO has a lower frequency modulation, and any understanding of anthropogenic forcing will require a clear understanding of natural variability on all time-scales, not just decadal but seasonal as well. For example, although speculative, it is not implausible that one consequence of climate change will be a change in the frequency, intensity or other characteristics of tropical atmosphere interaction processes such as ENSO. An initial science plan for CLIVAR is being finalized, and a project office is being established in Hamburg.

The Global Observations and Data Management focus is characterized by observing systems deployed during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program: e.g., the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array, Surface Velocity Program (SVP), and Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) Program. This focus supplies the data around which process experiments are built and are required to fuel global models and verify assessments. Internationally, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) coordinates this focus.

Process studies are characterized by those research programs that seek to determine and quantify processes that are important to seasonal to interannual climate variability. Examples are, in the United States, the Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System (GOALS) Program and, internationally, the CLIVAR and GEWEX Programs sponsored by the World Climate Research Program. This focus supplies additional new observations, improves the quality of models, and identifies those processes that are important to assess.

Integrative Modeling is characterized by the development and operation of Global Circulation Models (GCM) that are capable of simulating and predicting the evolving climate of the earth. Examples are numerous models operated by various institutions and typified by the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRICP) and the Coupled Modeling Project at the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC). This focus supplies new insights and hypotheses for process studies and the information necessary for the design of observing systems, and additionally, supplies the data necessary for valid assessments.

Assessments are characterized by a determination of the impacts of climate variability on the quality of life. Examples are the assessments produced by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction. Assessments point out the observations that should be taken, the process studies that should be performed, and the models that should be built, and, in addition, supplies the overall justification for the program.

TRMM will carry three main rain sensors: a passive microwave radiometer, similar to the SSM/I; a visible and infrared sensor similar to AVHRR; and for the first time in space, a precipitation radar to measure rain rates. These space-borne data have to be validated in order to be useful for research and practical uses. The precipitation radar data especially has to be carefully validated in order to prove the worthiness of active radar as a remote sensor on a space platform. The TRMM Program has established a network of ground truth data collection and processing sites involving combinations of remote and in situ measurements from the surface, especially ground-based radar and rain-gage data. These data will be used to calibrate and validate satellite measurements.

In this report, the status of TRMM program and descriptions of the Ground Validation sites are given.

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