Diagnostic Technique for Improved MJO Prediction
The objective of this project is to design a new metric to measure MJO prediction skills using the Large-Scale Precipitation Tracking (PLT) method (Kerns and Chen 2016, 2020). This method identifies the location and motion of tropical large-scale precipitation signals and tracks their eastward propagation as the manifestation of the MJO (see animation). The goal is the quantify MJO prediction skills in terms of the timing, strength, and motion of the regional precipitation of the MJO.
Kerns, B. W., & Chen, S. S. (2016). Large-scale precipitation tracking and the MJO over the Maritime Continent and Indo-Pacific warm pool. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121, 8755– 8776. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024661
Kerns, B.W. and Chen, S.S., 2020. A 20-year climatology of Madden-Julian Oscillation convection: Large-scale precipitation tracking from TRMM-GPM rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(7), p.e2019JD032142.