U.S. Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / OAR / PMEL / Publications

A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?

M. Wang1 and J. E. Overland2

1Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington USA

2Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, USA

Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037820
Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
Further electronic distribution is not allowed.


Chapman, W. L., and J. E. Walsh (2007), Simulations of Arctic temperature and pressure by global coupled models, J. Clim., 20, 609–632.

Comiso, J. C., C. L. Parkinson, R. Gersten, and L. Stock (2008), Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01703, doi:10.1029/2007GL031972.

Gascard, J.-C., et al. (2008), Exploring Arctic transpolar drift during dramatic sea ice retreat, Eos Trans. AGU, 89(3), doi:10.1029/2008EO030001.

Gerdes, R., and C. Köberle (2007), Comparison of Arctic sea ice thickness variability in IPCC Climate of the 20th Century experiments and in ocean-sea ice hindcasts, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C04S13, doi:10.1029/ 2006JC003616.

Gleckler, P. J., K. E. Taylor, and C. Doutriaux (2008), Performance metrics for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06104, doi:10.1029/2007JD008972.

Holland, M. M., C. M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay (2006), Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503, doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by J. T. Houghton et al., 881 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., 996 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.

Knutti, R., G. Meehl, M. R. Allen, and D. A. Stainforth (2006), Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature, J. Clim., 19, 4224–4233.

Maslanik, J. A., C. Fowler, J. Stroeve, S. Drobot, J. Zwally, D. Yi, and W. Emery (2007), A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24501, doi:10.1029/2007GL032043.

Nakićenović, N., and R. Swart (Eds.) (2000), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 599 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.

Nghiem, S. V., I. G. Rigor, D. K. Perovich, P. Clemente-Colón, J. W. Weatherly, and G. Neumann (2007), Rapid reduction of Arctic perennial sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19504, doi:10.1029/2007GL031138.

Ogi, M., and J. M. Wallace (2007), Summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent and the associated summer atmospheric circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12705, doi:10.1029/2007GL029897.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang (2007), Future regional Arctic sea ice declines, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17705, doi:10.1029/2007GL030808.

Overland, J. E., M. Wang, and S. Salo (2008), The recent Arctic warm period, Tellus, Ser. A, 60, 589–597.

Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.

Rigor, I. G., and J. M. Wallace (2004), Variations in the age of Arctic sea ice and summer sea-ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09401, doi:10.1029/2004GL019492.

Schweiger, A. J., R. W. Lindsay, S. Vavrus, and J. A. Francis (2008a), Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn, J. Clim., 21, 4799–4810.

Schweiger, A. J., J. Zhang, R. W. Lindsay, and M. Steele (2008b), Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10503, doi:10.1029/2008GL033463.

Serreze, M. C., and J. A. Francis (2006), The arctic amplification debate, Clim. Change, 76, 241–264.

Serreze, M. C., M. M. Holland, and J. Stroeve (2007), Perspective on the Arctic's shrinking sea-ice cover, Science, 315, 1533–1536.

Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze (2007), Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.

Stroeve, J., M. Serreze, S. Drobot, S. Gearheard, M. Holland, J. Maslanik, W. Meier, and T. Scambos (2008), Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007, Eos Trans. AGU, 89(2), doi:10.1029/2008EO020001.

Wang, M., J. E. Overland, V. Kattsov, J. E.Walsh, X. Zhang, and T. Pavlova (2007), Intrinsic versus forced variation in coupled climate model simulations over the Arctic during the twentieth century, J. Clim., 20, 1093–1107.

Zhang, X. D., and J. E. Walsh (2006), Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations, J. Clim., 19, 1730–1747.

Return to Previous section

Go to Gallery of Figures

PMEL Outstanding Papers

PMEL Publications Search

PMEL Homepage