PMEL Publications Abstract
FY 2026
ENSO’s strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world
Liu, S., L. Dong, F. Song, M.J. McPhaden, and L. Wu
J. Climate, 39(10), 2593–2607, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0550.1, View article at AMS (external link) (2026)
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary driver of interannual climate variability worldwide. However, the observed pattern of ENSO teleconnections can deviate significantly from the average or canonical teleconnection pattern from one event to another. It is unclear what controls the consistency in the pattern of ENSO teleconnections and to what extent this consistency may be affected by global warming. Here, we find that the pattern correlation between climate anomalies for a single event with the canonical ENSO teleconnections depends strongly on the intensity of the event, consistent with observations and climate model simulations. Under a high-emission scenario, significantly more ENSO events will exhibit a high pattern correlation, indicating that ENSO’s control on global climate anomalies in the twenty-first century will be substantially enhanced compared to the twentieth century. This strengthened control is attributed to both increased ENSO variability and a permanent El Niño–like warming pattern in the tropical Pacific. Our results suggest that climate predictions based on ENSO signals are likely to become more reliable in a warming climate.