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[ferret_users] Script to accounting for global significance: False Discovery Rate method, as per Wilks (2016, BAMS)



Hi all,

Prompted to post this in response to an earlier email. Apologies if I’ve already done it (couldn’t see it on the list), and I hope it’s useful to some…..

A fairly recent paper in BAMS by Daniel Wilks (dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00267.1) talked about indicating significance on contour plots. Many people (me included!) have indicated this significance by masking based on p values of a given grid square (e.g. let signif = if pval le 0.05 then 1). But this is not right on a contour plot - since there are lots of grid squares, there are many chances for the null hypothesis to be falsely rejected. 

Wilks’s method is to determine a critical p value that can be applied to a grid square, which gives the overall desired global significance (e.g. p < 0.05). To do this, you need an array of p-values (for all grid points), which are then arrange in increasing size (see the BAMS paper for more information).  

The attached ferret scripts calculate a critical p value for X-Y and Y-Z data (other combinations can be based on them). Simply pass the array of p values and the desired overall global p value (default is 0.05), and the script returns the critical p value. You can then create a mask similarly as before:

let signif = if pval le `pFDR` then 1 ! FDR = False Discovery Rate

Two tailed or one tailed significance is determined when you calculate the p-values.

The one snag in all this is that I don’t think ferret can return p values. As with many more detailed things, I use IDL to calculate p values, correct trend errors for autocorrelation etc, and then save to netcdf before plotting in ferret. I guess there might be a pyferret solution too???

Cheers,

Paul


Attachment: wilks_pfdr_xy.jnl
Description: wilks_pfdr_xy.jnl

Attachment: wilks_pfdr_yz.jnl
Description: wilks_pfdr_yz.jnl


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