var mcphaden_etal98 = "M. J. McPhaden <i>et al.</i>, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i> <b>103</b>, 14,169 (1998).";
var neelin_etal98= "J. D. Neelin <i>et al.</i>, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i> <b>103</b>, 14,261 (1998).";
var trenberth_etal98 = "K. E. Trenberth <i>et al.</i>, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i> <b>103</b>, 14,291 (1998).";
var latif_etal98 = "M. Latif <i>et al.</i>, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i> <b>103</b>, 14,375 (1998).";
var glantz01 = "M. H. Glantz, <i>Current of Change: Impacts of El Ni&ntilde;o and La Ni&ntilde;a on Climate and Society</i>. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001).";
var note6 = "It has been estimated that the 1997&ndash;1998 El Ni&ntilde;o resulted in 22,000 fatalities and US $36 billion in economic losses worldwide [<i>Sponberg</i>, 1999].";
var mcphaden99 = "M. J. McPhaden, <i>Science</i> <b>283</b>, 950 (1999).";
var note8 = "According to the Web of Science Citation Index (71), during the 5-year period from 2001 to 2005, 4257 publications in the refereed earth science literature appeared with El Ni&ntilde;o, La Ni&ntilde;a, or ENSO in the abstract, the title, or as a key word. This output represents more than half of all 8128 ENSO-related papers published in the 40 years since 1966 when the first seminal paper on El Ni&ntilde;o as a basin-wide phenomenon was published [<i>Bjerknes</i>, 1966].";
var cane05 = "M. A. Cane, <i>Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.</i> <b>230</b>, 227 (2005).";
var larkin_harrison02 = "N. Larkin, D. E. Harrison, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>15</b>, 1118 (2002).";
var an_jin04 = "S.-I. An, F. F. Jin, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>17</b>, 2399 (2004).";
var mantua_hare02 = "N. J. Mantua, S. R. Hare, <i>J. Oceanogr.</i> <b>58</b>, 35 (2002).";
var fedorov_philander00 = "A. V. Fedorov, S. G. H. Philander, <i>Science</i> <b>288</b>, 1997 (2000).";
var note14 = "It has been proposed that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation results from rather than causes the decadal variation of ENSO [<i>Rodgers et al.</i>, 2004].";
var chen_etal04 = "D. Chen, M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak, D. Huang, <i>Nature</i> <b>428</b>, 733 (2004).";
var kessler02  = "W. S. Kessler, <i>Geophys. Res. Lett.</i> <b>29</b>, 2125 10.1029/ 2002GL015924 (2002).";
var note17 = "High-frequency intraseasonal forcing has often been characterized in terms of purely stochastic noise. However, large-scale seasonally varying background conditions in the tropical Pacific modulate aspects of this forcing, such as seasonal mean variance levels, so there may be a partially deterministic and predictable component to it as well [<i>Eisenman et al.</i>, 2005].";
var note18 = "ENSO teleconnections to Europe are relatively weak, but there is potentially a predictable signal in European rainfall during boreal spring after the peak SST anomalies in both El Ni&ntilde;o and La Ni&ntilde;a years [<i>Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders</i>, 2002].";
var note19 = "ENSO impacts in Antarctica are described in [<i>Turner</i>, 2004].";
var taguchi_hartmann06 = "M. Taguchi, D. L. Hartmann, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>19</b>, 324 (2006).";
var note21 = "The weakness of the 2004&ndash;2005 El Ni&ntilde;o and its shortlived, limited climatic impacts sparked controversy in the scientific community as to whether the event should even be classified as an El Ni&ntilde;o [<i>Lyon and Barnston</i>, 2005].";
var hoerling_etal01 = "M. P. Hoerling, A. Kumar, T. Xu, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>14</b>, 1277 (2001).";
var pielke_landsea99 = "R. A. Pielke Jr., C. N. Landsea, <i>Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.</i> <b>80</b>, 2027 (1999).";
var diaz_etal01 = "H. F. Diaz, M. Hoerling, J. K. Eischeid, <i>Int. J. Climatol.</i> <b>21</b>, 1845 (2001).";
var note25 = "Many of the confounding factors that affect the robustness of ENSO teleconnections may have been at work in weakening the relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the 1980s and 1990s [<i>Kumar et al.</i>, 2006].";
var behrenfeld_etal01 = "M. J. Behrenfeld <i>et al.</i>, <i>Science</i> <b>291</b>, 2594 (2001).";
var chavez_etal99 = "F. P. Chavez <i>et al.</i>, <i>Science</i> <b>286</b>, 2126 (1999).";
var stenseth_etal02 = "N. C. Stenseth <i>et al.</i>, <i>Science</i> <b>297</b>, 1292 (2002).";
var levin_etal02 = "L. Levin <i>et al.</i>, <i>Prog. Oceanogr.</i> <b>53</b>, 1 (2002).";
var quetin_ross03 = "L. B. Quetin, R. M. Ross, <i>Mar. Ecol. Prog.</i> <b>259</b>, 185 (2003).";
var chavez_etal03 = "F. P. Chavez, J. Ryan, S. E. Lluch-Cota, M. &Ntilde;iquen, <i>Science</i> <b>299</b>, 217 (2003).";
var walther_etal02 = "G. R. Walther <i>et al.</i>, <i>Nature</i> <b>416</b>, 389 (2002).";
var holmgren_etal06 = "M. Holmgren <i>et al.</i>, <i>Front. Ecol. Environ</i> <b>4</b>, 87 (2006).";
var grant_grant02 = "P. R. Grant, B. R. Grant, <i>Science</i> <b>296</b>, 707 (2002).";
var siegert_etal01 = "F. Siegert, G. Ruecker, A. Hinrichs, A. A. Hoffman, <i>Nature</i> <b>414</b>, 437 (2001).";
var harrison00 = "R. D. Harrison, <i>Proc. R. Soc. London B. Biol. Sci.</i> <b>267</b>, 911 (2000).";
var rayner_etal99 = "P. J. Rayner, I. G. Enting, R. J. Francey, R. Langenfelds, <i>Tellus</i> <b>51B</b>, 213 (1999).";
var feely_etal06 = "R. A. Feely <i>et al.</i>, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i> <b>111</b>, C08S90, doi: 10.1029/2005JC003129 (2006).";
var wright05 = "S. J. Wright, in <i>Rain Forests: Past, Present, and Future</i>, E. Bermingham, C. Dick, C. Moritz, Eds. (Univ. Chicago Press, Chicago, 2005), pp. 295&ndash;310.";
var page_etal02  = "S. E. Page <i>et al.</i>, <i>Nature</i> <b>420</b>, 61 (2002).";
var barnston_etal99 = "A. G. Barnston, M. H. Glantz, Y. He, <i>Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.</i> <b>80</b>, 217 (1999).";
var vanoldenborgh_etal05 = "G. J. van Oldenborgh, M. A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T. N. Stockdale, D. L. T. Anderson, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>18</b>, 3240 (2005).";
var guilyardi06 = "E. Guilyardi, <i>Clim. Dyn.</i> <b>26</b>, 329 (2006).";
var palmer_etal04 = "T. N. Palmer <i>et al.</i>, <i>Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.</i> <b>85</b>, 853 (2004).";
var goddard_etal01 = "L. Goddard <i>et al.</i>, <i>Int. J. Climatol.</i> <b>21</b>, 1111 (2001).";
var note46 = "NOAA, National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archives, www.cpc. ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/ ENSO_DD_archive.shtml.";
var doblas_reyes_etal05 = "F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn, T. N. Palmer, <i>Tellus</i> <b>57A</b>, 234 (2005).";
var glantz00 = "M. H. Glantz, Ed., <i>Once Burned, Twice Shy: Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Ni&ntilde;o</i> (United Nations Univ. Press, Tokyo, 2000).";
var note49 = "The actual occurrence and severity of disease outbreaks depends not only on climatic influences like ENSO but also on a variety of other socioeconomic factors, such as poverty level, public health and sanitation, exposure risks, and government intervention policies. See [<i>Kumar et al.</i>, 2006] for a review of ENSO and health.";
var kovats_etal04 = "R. S. Kovats, M. J. Bouma, S. Hajat, E. Worrall, A. Haines, <i>Lancet</i> <b>362</b>, 1481 (2004).";
var naylor_etal02 = "R. Naylor, W. Falcon, N. Wada, D. Rochberg, <i>Bull. Indonesian Econ. Stud.</i> <b>38</b>, 75 (2002).";
var patt_gwata02 = "A. Patt, C. Gwata, <i>Glob. Environ. Change</i> <b>12</b>, 185 (2002).";
var davis01 = "M. Davis, <i>Late Victorian Holocausts: El Ni&ntilde;o Famines and the Making of the Third World</i> (Verso, London, 2001).";
var note54 = "It is not so much that social and economic losses associated with weather-related hazards are greater during El Ni&ntilde;o or La Ni&ntilde;a events but that during these times climate conditions may be predictable with greater accuracy [<i>Goddard and Dilley</i>, 2005].";
var thomson_etal06 = "M. C. Thomson <i>et al.</i>, <i>Nature</i> <b>439</b>, 576 (2006).";
var filho_lall03 = "F. A. S. Filho, U. Lall, <i>Water Resour. Res.</i> <b>39</b>, 1307 10.1029/2002WR001373 (2003).";
var broad_etal02 = "K. A. Broad, P. Pfaff, M. H. Glantz, <i>Clim. Change</i> <b>54</b>, 415 (2002).";
var allan_etal03 = "J. C. Allan, P. D. Komar, G. R. Priest, <i>J. Coast. Sci.</i> <b>38</b>, 83 (2003).";
var changnon99 = "S. A. Changnon, <i>Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.</i> <b>80</b>, 1819 (1999).";
var glantz02 = "M. H. Glantz, Ed., <i>La Nina and Its Impacts</i> (United Nations Univ. Press, Tokyo, 2002).";
var mann_etal05 = "M. E. Mann, M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, A. Clement, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>18</b>, 447 (2005).";
var tudhope_etal01 = "A. W. Tudhope <i>et al.</i>, <i>Science</i> <b>291</b>, 1511 (2001).";
var fedorov_etal06 = "A. V. Fedorov <i>et al.</i>, <i>Science</i> <b>312</b>, 1485 (2006).";
var huber_caballero03 = "M. Huber, R. Caballero, <i>Science</i> <b>299</b>, 877 (2003).";
var wunsch99 = "C. Wunsch, <i>Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.</i> <b>80</b>, 245 (1999).";
var vanoldenbourgh_etal05 = "G. J. van Oldenbourgh, S. Y. Philip, M. Collins, <i>Ocean Science</i> <b>1</b>, 81 (2005).";
var achutarao_sperber06 = "K. AchutaRao, K. R. Sperber, <i>Clim. Dyn.</i> <b>27</b>, 1 (2006).";
var trenberth_etal02 = "K. E. Trenberth, J. M. Caron, D. P. Stepaniak, S. Worley, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i> <b>107</b>, 4065 10.1029/2000JD000298 (2002).";
var witze06 = "A. Witze, <i>Nature</i> <b>441</b>, 564 (2006).";
var sponberg99 = "K. Sponberg, <i>Compendium of Climatological Impacts</i>, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, (1999).";
var note71 = "Web of Science Citation Index, http://isiknowledge.com.";
var bjerknes66 = "J. Bjerknes, <i>Tellus</i> <b>18</b>, 820 (1966).";
var rodgers_etal04 = "K. B. Rodgers, P. Friedrichs, M. Latif, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>17</b>, 3761 (2004).";
var eisenmann_etal05 = "I. Eisenman, L. Yu, E. Tziperman, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>18</b>, 5224 (2005).";
var lloyd_hughes_saunders02 = "B. Lloyd-Hughes, M. A. Saunders, <i>Int. J. Climatol.</i> <b>22</b>, 1 (2002).";
var turner04 = "J. Turner, <i>Int. J. Climatol.</i> <b>24</b>, 1 (2004).";
var lyon_barnston05 = "B. Lyon, A. G. Barnston, <i>U.S. CLIVAR Variations</i> <b>3</b>, 1 (2005).";
var kumar_etal06 = "K. K. Kumar, B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, M. A. Cane, <i>Science</i> <b>314</b>, 115 (2006).";
var goddard_dilley05 = "L. Goddard, M. Dilley, <i>J. Clim.</i> <b>18</b>, 661 (2005).";
var note80 = "Dynamical and statistical models in <a href=\"images/fig03.gif\">Fig. 3</a> are the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA GMAO) model, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (NCEP CFS) model, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) model, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scripps) model, the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) model, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) model, the Korea Meteorological Administration (Korea SNU) model, the University of Maryland Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center Intermediate Coupled Model (ESSIC ICM), European Centre Hamburg Model-Modular Ocean Model (ECHAM MOM), the Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere Studies Anomaly (COLA ANOM) model, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Markov (CPC MRKOV) model, the NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center Linear Inverse Model (CDC LIM), the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Constructed Analog (CPC CA) model, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Canonical Correlation Analysis (CPC CCA) model, the Colorado State University Climatology and Persistence (CSU CLIPER) model, the University of British Columbia Neural Network (UBC NNET) model, the Florida State University Regression (FSU REGR) model, and the University of California at Los Angeles Theoretical Climate Dynamics (UCLA TCD) model.";

