PMEL Programs and Plans
Accomplishments in FY 96 and Plans for FY 97
Figure. Hindcast of 1982-1983 El Nino.
Thermal Modeling and Analysis Project
Accomplishments in FY 96
The Thermal Modeling and Analysis Project (TMAP)
continues to carry out studies using observations and ocean circulation models
in support of NOAA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (SIP) mission. A major
project to identify the common elements of El
Nino-Southern Ocsillation (ENSO) periods over the global ocean surface has
been completed. The sea level pressure composite results indicate that the most
statistically significant features are associated with the eastern equatorial
Pacific and a region in the western central north Pacific, rather than with the
historical Southern Oscillation between Tahiti and Darwin. The sea surface temperature
and surface wind composite has several very statistically significant signals.
Any model being used to predict ENSO should be validated against its ability
to reproduce these features. Studies of the seasonal cycle of upper ocean currents
and temperatures, as well as their interannual variability, are being studied,
and the impact of our present level of uncertainty about the surface wind field
is being assessed.
The importance of Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) in the variability of the western
tropical Pacific and the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continues to
be investigated, using observations from the
Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TAO) moorings and ocean model studies. A major
effort to determine the x-y-t structure of WWEs was completed. The ability of
the TAO array to observe WWEs is marginal, and is being determined.
The ability of our present and proposed tropical observing systems to measure the changes that
are important for SIP is a continuing assessment activity. A major summary of the space and
time scales of thermal variability as measured by the TAO array was completed, and much
progress was made on a similar study of the scales of surface wind variability. An ensemble of
ocean model experiments was carried out so that detailed sampling studies of the effectiveness of
the present observing system can be examined.
Work continues on aspects of longer time scale problems as well. The variability of surface pC02
in the North Pacific was examined with other Ocean Climate Research Division scientists.
A new one dimensional model of the near-surface food web was developed with University of Washington scientists and has been validated against tropical Pacific observations; it is being incorporated into our
ocean circulation model. Global studies of the uptake and redistribution of CFCs continued with
Department of Energy and National Science Foundation collaborators.
Thermal Modeling and Anaylsis Project
Plans for FY 97
- Continue tropical Pacific data analysis and ocean modeling work in support of NOAA's Seasonal
to Interannual Prediction mission. This includes analysis of model hindcasts of previous ENSO
and Cold Event periods, studies of the roles of westerly wind events in ENSO periods, trying to
understand the mechanisms responsible for the seasonal cycle of upper ocean currents and
temperatures, and idealized process studies.
- Complete the near-global composite description of ENSO and Cold Events, which began with
the sea level pressure composite study described above.
- Complete the description of the 3-D
structure of westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, and relate these to ENSO wind changes.
- Continue studies to assess the space and time scales of tropical variability and the implications of
these on the tropical ocean observing systems in place (Pacific) and undergoing design and
preliminary implementation (Atlantic and Indian). Ocean model and observational data sets will
be used to study the effectiveness of our observing systems. Extension of this activity to include
the chemistry and biology of the ocean carbonate system will be explored.
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