FOCI
recruitment forecast with comparison to actual recruitment |
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Recruitment strength forecasts
are indicated as weak (W), weak to average (W-A), average (A), average to
strong (A-S), or strong (S). Data sources are listed at the bottom. |
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Type
of Forecast |
Year Class |
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89 |
90 |
91 |
92 |
93 |
94 |
95 |
96 |
97 |
98 |
99 |
00 |
01 |
02 |
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
Year Prediction Made |
Method |
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Quantitative 19921 |
W |
W-A |
W |
S |
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92 |
Spawner-recruit data, time sequence of data |
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Quantitative2 |
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A |
A |
A |
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93 |
Nonlinear transfer function time series model |
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Qualitative3 |
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W |
W |
A |
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93 |
Subjective observations |
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Combined 1993 |
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W |
W |
W-A |
A |
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93 |
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Quantitative4 |
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S |
A |
A |
A |
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94 |
Nonlinear transfer function time series model |
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Quantitative5 |
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W |
W |
A |
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94 |
Hydroacoustic length composition |
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Qualitative6 |
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A-S |
A |
A |
A-S |
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94 |
Rain |
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Qualitative7 |
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W |
A |
A |
A-S |
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94 |
Wind mixing |
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Qualitative8 |
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W |
A |
A |
A-S |
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94 |
Advection |
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Qualitative9 |
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W |
A-S |
W-A |
A |
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94 |
Index of larval abundance |
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Combined 1994 |
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W |
W |
A |
A |
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94 |
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Quantitative11 |
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S |
S |
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95 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
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Quantitative4 |
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A |
A |
A |
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95 |
Nonlinear transfer function time series model |
|
Quantitative5 |
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S |
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95 |
Hydroacoustic length composition |
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Qualitative6 |
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A-S |
A-S |
A-S |
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95 |
Rain |
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Qualitative7 |
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A-S |
A |
A |
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95 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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A-S |
A |
A |
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95 |
Advection |
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Qualitative9 |
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A |
S |
S |
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95 |
Index of larval abundance |
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Qualitative10 |
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A-S |
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95 |
Tufted puffin nesting diet |
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Combined 1995 |
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S |
A-S |
A-S |
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95 |
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Quantitative11 |
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S |
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96 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
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Quantitative4 |
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A |
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96 |
Nonlinear transfer function time series model |
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Quantitative5 |
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W |
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96 |
Hydroacoustic length composition |
|
Quantitative12 |
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A-S |
W-A |
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96 |
Rain |
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Quantitative13 |
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A |
W-A |
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96 |
Wind mixing |
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Qualitative8 |
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A |
A-S |
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96 |
Advection |
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Qualitative9 |
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S |
A-S |
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96 |
Index of larval abundance |
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Combined 1996 |
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A |
A |
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96 |
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Quantitative11 |
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A |
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97 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
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Quantitative12 |
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A-S |
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97 |
Rain |
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Quantitative13 |
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A |
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97 |
Wind mixing |
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Qualitative8 |
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A-S |
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97 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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A |
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97 |
Index of larval abundance |
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Combined 1997 |
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A |
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97 |
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Quantitative12 |
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S |
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98 |
Rain |
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Quantitative13 |
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A |
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98 |
Wind mixing |
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Qualitative8 |
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A |
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98 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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W |
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98 |
Index of larval abundance |
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Combined 1998 |
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A |
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98 |
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Quantitative11 |
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S |
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99 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
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Quantitative12 |
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A |
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99 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
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A-S |
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99 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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A |
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99 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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W-A |
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99 |
Index of larval abundance |
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Combined 1999 |
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A |
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99 |
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Quantitative11 |
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W |
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00 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
|
Quantitative12 |
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A |
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00 |
Rain |
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Quantitative13 |
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A-S |
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00 |
Wind mixing |
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Qualitative8 |
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A-S |
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00 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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A-S |
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00 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Combined 2000 |
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A |
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00 |
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Quantitative11 |
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A-S |
A |
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01 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
|
Quantitative12 |
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A-S |
A-S |
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01 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
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A-S |
A-S |
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01 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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A |
A-S |
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01 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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A-S |
A-S |
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01 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Combined 2001 |
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A-S |
A-S |
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01 |
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Quantitative11 |
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A |
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02 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
|
Quantitative12 |
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A |
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02 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
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A-S |
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02 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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W |
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02 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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W-A |
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02 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Combined 2002 |
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W-A |
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02 |
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Quantitative11 |
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A-S |
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03 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
|
Quantitative12 |
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A-S |
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03 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
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A |
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03 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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A |
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03 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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A-S |
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03 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Combined 2003 |
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A-S |
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03 |
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Quantitative11 |
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A-S |
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04 |
S-R data and time sequence of data points |
|
Quantitative12 |
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A-S |
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04 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
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A |
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04 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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A |
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04 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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W-A |
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04 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Combined 2004 |
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A |
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04 |
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|
Quantitative11 |
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A-S |
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05 |
Time sequence of data points |
|
Quantitative15 |
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W-A |
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05 |
Spawner-recruit data |
|
Quantitative12 |
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|
A-S |
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05 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
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|
A-S |
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05 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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A-S |
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05 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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|
A |
|
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05 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Combined 2005 |
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A |
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05 |
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Quantitative15 |
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|
A |
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|
06 |
Spawner-recruit data |
|
Quantitative12 |
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W-A |
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06 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
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|
A |
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|
06 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
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W-A |
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06 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
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|
A |
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|
06 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Qualitative16 |
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|
A-S |
|
|
06 |
Larval rought counts and distribution |
|
Combined 2006 |
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A |
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06 |
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Quantitative15 |
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|
A |
|
07 |
Spawner-recruit data |
|
Quantitative11 |
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|
W-A |
|
07 |
Time sequence
of data points |
|
Quantitative12 |
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|
A-S |
|
07 |
Rain |
|
Quantitative13 |
|
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|
A |
|
07 |
Wind mixing |
|
Qualitative8 |
|
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|
W |
|
07 |
Advection |
|
Qualitative9 |
|
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|
A |
|
07 |
Index of larval abundance |
|
Qualitative16 |
|
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|
W-A |
|
07 |
Larval rought counts and distribution |
|
Combined 2007 |
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A |
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07 |
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Quantitative15 |
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A |
08 |
Spawner-recruit data |
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Quantitative11 |
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W-A |
08 |
Time sequence
of data points |
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Quantitative12 |
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A-S |
08 |
Rain |
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Quantitative13 |
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A |
08 |
Wind mixing |
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Qualitative8 |
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A |
08 |
Advection |
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Qualitative9 |
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A |
08 |
Index of larval abundance |
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Qualitative16 |
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A-S |
08 |
Larval rought counts and distribution |
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Combined 2007 |
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A |
08 |
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Actual Recruitment Estimate14 |
A-S |
A |
W-A |
W |
W-A |
A-S |
A |
W |
W |
W-A |
A-S |
A-S |
W |
W |
W |
W-A |
A-S |
A-S |
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1 Used
recruitment time series 1962-1989 and spawner-recruit data 1969-1989; no
environmental data |
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2 Used
recruitment time series 1962-1989 as well as environmental data |
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3 Used NMFS survey
data |
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4 Used
recruitment time series from 1962 as well as environmental data in refit of
transfer function model |
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5
Hydroacoustic length composition from Shelikof Strait (Chris Wilson, pers.
comm.) |
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6 Average
monthly Kodiak rainfall during January and February (Allen Macklin, pers.
comm.) |
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7 Wind
mixing energy at 55¡N 156¡W during April-June (Allen Macklin, pers. comm.). |
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8
Determined from moored current meter records and drift buoy trajectories
(Phyllis Stabeno, pers. comm.) |
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9 Larval
counts from ichthyoplankton tows in Sheilkof Strait (Kevin Bailey, pers.
comm.) |
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10 Tufted
puffin nesting diet on Middleton Island (Hatch 1984 and unpubl. data) |
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11
Recruitment time series from1962 and spawner-recruit data from 1969; no
environmental data |
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12 Based on
average monthly Kodiak rainfall during January-June (Allen Macklin, pers.
comm.) |
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13 Based on
average monthly wind mixing energy at 55¡N 156¡W during January-June (Allen
Macklin, pers. comm.). |
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14 Based on
5-category percentiles from 2007 SAFE 2-yr abundance estimates |
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15 Based on transition probabilities after Rothschild, B.J. and
Mullin, A.J. 1985. The information content of stock-and-recruitment data and
its non-parametric classification. Journal du Conseil Interntnl.
pour lÕExploration de la Mer. 42: 116-124. |
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16 Based on
analysis of larval rough counts and distribution |
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