Understanding North Pacific Carbon-cycle Changes: Agenda

Day 1 Morning

8:00- 9:00 Continental breakfast at conference center

9:00- 9:15 Welcome, summary of objectives, action plan (Sabine)

9:15- 9:35 Overview Talk: The Recent State of the North Pacific Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System (Nick Bond)

9:35- 9:55 Overview Talk: Observed changes of interdecadal to seasonal time scales in the surface water pCO₂ field over the North Pacific Ocean: A synthesis of 25 years of observations (Takahashi)

9:55-10:15 Overview Talk: Relationships between climate variability and ecosystem structure (Chavez)

10:15-10:45 Break

10:45-11:05 Overview Talk: Temporal Changes on AOU in the upper pycnocline of the North Pacific: observations and model results (Emerson)

11:05-11:25 Overview Talk: Modeled Pacific Carbon Cycle Variability (McKinley)

11:25-11:45 Overview Talk: Current and future drivers of variability in the North Pacific (Matear)

11:45-12:00 Charge to working groups: (Sabine)
Short presentations by observationalists and modelers presenting primary results and major conclusions. All should have been prepped by WG leaders to ensure consistency in presentations and ability to address issues raised by other speakers. Point-counterpoint discussion on consistency of results and major conclusions. The objective is to develop a coherent picture of carbon-cycle variability over the entire North Pacific.

Afternoon

15:00-15:30 Break.

13:00-17:00 Spend about half time with presentations from each participant and half time developing focus of working group and ideas to present the following morning.

WG1 (co-chairs: Feely, Doney; rapporteur: 2 students)
How are air-sea CO₂ fluxes in the North Pacific affected by different modes of variability?
Issues to address: What is magnitude of CO₂ flux variability over North Pacific estimated from data and models? Do the observed and modeled variations present a coherent picture for the North Pacific? How do the observed patterns and magnitudes of variability compare to observed variability in nutrients, chlorophyll, physical properties? Can models help attribute the variability to known processes?

WG2 (co-chairs: Gruber, Key; rapporteur: 2 students)
How and why are the North Pacific distribution patterns of carbon, nutrients and oxygen in the water column changing with time?
Issues to address: What are the magnitudes and patterns of changes in carbon, oxygen and nutrients in the North Pacific over time observed in data and predicted by models? How do we distinguish between changes caused by physics and changes caused by biology? Do the patterns of biological variations correlate with geochemical variations? Can we distinguish between natural modes of variability and climate change?

WG3 (co-chairs: Sarmiento, Sabine; rapporteur: 2 students)
What are the requirements for detecting a climate change signal in the North Pacific carbon cycle?
Issues to address: What are the observed magnitudes of natural variability? What are the anticipated magnitudes and patterns of change resulting from long term climate change? When do we expect to be able to distinguish climate change from the natural variability? What is required to properly attribute observed changes to climate change (e.g. better constraint on effects of natural modes of variability)?

17:00-19:00 Special meeting of co-organizers, student participants, and PMEL participants to organize notes and prepare for presentations the following morning

Day 1	Morning
8:00- 9:00	Continental breakfast at conference center
9:00- 9:15	Welcome, summary of objectives, action plan (Sabine)
9:15- 9:35	Overview Talk: The Recent State of the North Pacific Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System (Nick Bond)
9:35- 9:55	Overview Talk: Observed changes of interdecadal to seasonal time scales in the surface water pCO₂ field over the North Pacific Ocean: A synthesis of 25 years of observations (Takahashi)
9:55-10:15	Overview Talk: Relationships between climate variability and ecosystem structure (Chavez)
10:15-10:45	Break
10:45-11:05	Overview Talk: Temporal Changes on AOU in the upper pycnocline of the North Pacific: observations and model results (Emerson)
11:05-11:25	Overview Talk: Modeled Pacific Carbon Cycle Variability (McKinley)
11:25-11:45	Overview Talk: Current and future drivers of variability in the North Pacific (Matear)
11:45-12:00	Charge to working groups: (Sabine) Short presentations by observationalists and modelers presenting primary results and major conclusions. All should have been prepped by WG leaders to ensure consistency in presentations and ability to address issues raised by other speakers. Point-counterpoint discussion on consistency of results and major conclusions. The objective is to develop a coherent picture of carbon-cycle variability over the entire North Pacific.
	Afternoon
15:00-15:30	Break.
13:00-17:00	Spend about half time with presentations from each participant and half time developing focus of working group and ideas to present the following morning.
WG1	(co-chairs: Feely, Doney; rapporteur: 2 students) How are air-sea CO₂ fluxes in the North Pacific affected by different modes of variability? Issues to address: What is magnitude of CO₂ flux variability over North Pacific estimated from data and models? Do the observed and modeled variations present a coherent picture for the North Pacific? How do the observed patterns and magnitudes of variability compare to observed variability in nutrients, chlorophyll, physical properties? Can models help attribute the variability to known processes?
WG2	(co-chairs: Gruber, Key; rapporteur: 2 students) How and why are the North Pacific distribution patterns of carbon, nutrients and oxygen in the water column changing with time? Issues to address: What are the magnitudes and patterns of changes in carbon, oxygen and nutrients in the North Pacific over time observed in data and predicted by models? How do we distinguish between changes caused by physics and changes caused by biology? Do the patterns of biological variations correlate with geochemical variations? Can we distinguish between natural modes of variability and climate change?
WG3	(co-chairs: Sarmiento, Sabine; rapporteur: 2 students) What are the requirements for detecting a climate change signal in the North Pacific carbon cycle? Issues to address: What are the observed magnitudes of natural variability? What are the anticipated magnitudes and patterns of change resulting from long term climate change? When do we expect to be able to distinguish climate change from the natural variability? What is required to properly attribute observed changes to climate change (e.g. better constraint on effects of natural modes of variability)?
17:00-19:00	Special meeting of co-organizers, student participants, and PMEL participants to organize notes and prepare for presentations the following morning

Day 2 Morning

8:00- 9:00 Continental breakfast at conference center

9:00- 9:15 Welcome, summary of latest action plan (Sabine)

9:15- 9:30 Summary of WG1 focus (speaker: Doney) - use graphics and ideas from individual presentations the previous afternoon to describe, as well as possible, the focus of the working group and the scientific evidence behind the direction chosen.

9:30- 9:40 Questions/Discussion

9:40- 9:55 Summary of WG2 focus (speaker: Gruber) - use graphics and ideas from individual presentations the previous afternoon to describe, as well as possible, the focus of the working group and the scientific evidence behind the direction chosen.

9:55-10:05 Questions/Discussion

10:05-10:20 Summary of WG3 focus (speaker: Sarmiento) - use graphics and ideas from individual presentations the previous afternoon to describe, as well as possible, the focus of the working group and the scientific evidence behind the direction chosen.

10:20-10:30 Questions/Discussion

10:30-11:00 Break

11:00-11:50 Discussion of synergies and inconsistencies in working group conclusions
Discussion of possible crosscutting themes

11:50-12:00 Charge to working groups - at this point working groups may be combined, subdivided or reorganized to make the most effective papers

Afternoon

15:00-15:30 Break.

13:00-17:00 Working group discussions

All working groups to address following questions:

Do the data support the signals predicted by the models?
Can the models help attribute the signals to particular mechanisms?
Do the models predict realistic signals missed by the existing data?
Begin preparing outlines for papers.

17:00-18:30 Special meeting of student participants: co-chairs and PMEL participants work with students to organize notes, prepare for presentations, and organize outline and writing assignments for workshop report and EOS article to be prepared by students.
19:00-22:00 Argosy Dinner Cruise

Day 2	Morning
8:00- 9:00	Continental breakfast at conference center
9:00- 9:15	Welcome, summary of latest action plan (Sabine)
9:15- 9:30	Summary of WG1 focus (speaker: Doney) - use graphics and ideas from individual presentations the previous afternoon to describe, as well as possible, the focus of the working group and the scientific evidence behind the direction chosen.
9:30- 9:40	Questions/Discussion
9:40- 9:55	Summary of WG2 focus (speaker: Gruber) - use graphics and ideas from individual presentations the previous afternoon to describe, as well as possible, the focus of the working group and the scientific evidence behind the direction chosen.
9:55-10:05	Questions/Discussion
10:05-10:20	Summary of WG3 focus (speaker: Sarmiento) - use graphics and ideas from individual presentations the previous afternoon to describe, as well as possible, the focus of the working group and the scientific evidence behind the direction chosen.
10:20-10:30	Questions/Discussion
10:30-11:00	Break
11:00-11:50	Discussion of synergies and inconsistencies in working group conclusions Discussion of possible crosscutting themes
11:50-12:00	Charge to working groups - at this point working groups may be combined, subdivided or reorganized to make the most effective papers
	Afternoon
15:00-15:30	Break.
13:00-17:00	Working group discussions
	All working groups to address following questions: Do the data support the signals predicted by the models? Can the models help attribute the signals to particular mechanisms? Do the models predict realistic signals missed by the existing data? Begin preparing outlines for papers.
17:00-18:30	Special meeting of student participants: co-chairs and PMEL participants work with students to organize notes, prepare for presentations, and organize outline and writing assignments for workshop report and EOS article to be prepared by students.
19:00-22:00	Argosy Dinner Cruise

Day 3 Morning

8:00- 9:00 Continental breakfast at conference center

9:00- 9:15 Welcome, summary of latest action plan (Sabine)

9:15- 9:25 WG1 report on previous day's discussions (speaker: rapporteur student)

9:25- 9:35 Full group discussion of WG1 results (leader: Feely)

9:35- 9:45 WG2 report on previous day's discussions (speaker: rapporteur student)

9:45- 9:55 Full group discussion of WG2 results (leader: Key)

9:55-10:05 WG3 report on previous day's discussions (speaker: rapporteur student)

10:05-10:15 Full group discussion of WG3 results (leader: Sabine)

10:15-10:45 Coffee break

10:45-11:15 Discussion of manuscript publication plans (special section of GBC, DSR special volume)

11:15-12:00 Meet in individual working groups to continue manuscript planning and assignment of writing tasks. Students meet separately to continue planning reports

Afternoon

15:00-15:30 Break.

13:00-17:00 Summary of manuscript plans and outlines from each of the WG
Summary of final workshop report and EOS meeting report by students
Discussion of PICES session on North Pacific carbon cycle changes in Honolulu in October (goal to have manuscripts submitted by then - presentations at session)
Final discussions of workshop results
Closing remarks